Five matches into the Premier League season, the table is beginning to take shape—but results and performances are not always telling the same story.
With an extended international break offering time for assessment, the underlying numbers reveal which starts look sustainable and which may unravel when Final One Standing resumes.
The extended three-week break also brings another consideration: players returning with different minutes, travel demands and recovery windows. All may influence decisions on the resumption of Final One Standing.
Brighton and Hove Albion
I flagged the Seagulls early doors as a team to watch, and they have not disappointed. In fact, I’d go as far as to say they might be the league’s most fascinating side.
Their pressing has been outstanding: a league-low PPDA of 7.4, combined with 56 high turnovers and 64.8% possession. Crucially, that aggression is creating chances, with Brighton leading the division for xG (12.03), alongside 95 shots and 16 goals.
However, there are reasons for caution… the side may have conceded only five goals, but that comes from 8.68 xGA. Their opponents currently have the highest shot average (0.15 xG), so while opportunities are limited, they tend to be high quality.
Maintaining their pressing intensity after the break will be worth watching. But the pause in proceedings has at least given Fabian Hurzeler and his squad a mini-reset, and with a league-high 11 absences, the Seagulls should benefit from a host of returning players.
Manchester City
For now, we’ll forget the Cityzens’ off-the-field shenanigans and focus on how the team has been performing on the pitch, and why results and underlying performance need to be considered together.
City sit atop the Premier League table on maximum points… with five wins from five, although the underlying metrics suggest that all is not quite well with the team, with their perfect record papering over the cracks.
Yes, their 10.50 xG and 13 goals rank them second, but defensively the side is sitting mid-table, and with troubled times on the horizon, maintaining that level of overperformance will be difficult.
A trip to Anfield on their return is probably not what Enzo Maresca would have wanted. Facing an unbeaten Liverpool side that has won three of the last four (all competitions) will be tough, and their preparations could differ significantly. Erling Haaland will benefit from almost a full week of recovery as Norway play their final Nations League qualifier on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Abdukodir Khusanov will feature in South Korea on Tuesday… Nico O’Reilly will be one to watch following his early release from the England camp due to injury. Consider those details alongside form when picking your team for the restart.
Arsenal
The Gunners’ numbers look more sustainable, but the potential loss of Kai Havertz and Christos Tzolis to hamstring injuries will disrupt the side’s attacking output. The Champions sit well-placed in second, with the loss at Brighton the only blemish in an otherwise solid start. Arsenal have closely matched their expected numbers: 8 goals scored from 8.48 xG, and four conceded (4.04 xGA).
With three clean sheets already, their defensive process remains particularly strong, despite shipping three at the Amex Stadium. Arsenal have the league’s lowest xGA, allowing just 0.08 xG per opposition shot. The Brighton result deserves scrutiny, but one loss does not erase that foundation.
Martin Ødegaard has also started the season in fine form, creating 12 chances and 1.31 xA without registering a league assist. His attacking contribution has more substance than those returns suggest, and encouragingly, he completed 90 minutes against Wales on Thursday evening after his ankle scare.
Declan Rice was permitted to remain at London Colney over the break as he continues to manage ongoing lower back and hamstring issues, but he should be fine. Jurrien Timber was also handed meaningful minutes (78) for the Netherlands on Thursday – the most he has played in almost seven months as he approaches full match fitness.
Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs’ problems become clearer when possession is separated from penetration.
Tottenham are bottom with no wins and only two draws, although their 5.8 expected points places them around mid-table. Their 60.6% possession, 841 final-third passes, and 84 sequences of ten or more passes suggest a side capable of controlling the ball, while a PPDA of 8.8 also highlights an aggressive press.
The difficulty for Roberto De Zerbi has been turning that activity into threatening chances. Spurs need purpose from that possession: they’ve generated just 6.89 xG, averaged a league-low 0.07 xG per shot, and scored just twice.
Defensively, the withdrawal of Jan Paul van Hecke from the Netherlands’ squad and the continued absence of Pedro Porro is a worry. De Zerbi has lost two progressive ball carriers from his backline.
At the same time, Rodrigo Bentancur, who has started the last four Premier League matches, is scheduled to play in India on Tuesday and is therefore a travel consideration ahead of the trip to Old Trafford.
Brentford
The Bees’ fourth-place start is built upon a convincing statistical foundation. Nine points closely match their expected number (8.6), while 9.90 xG ranks them third and 6.31 xGA is fourth-best.
Their set-piece play has been particularly effective, and the side leads the league with 3.82 xG and 33 shots from dead-ball situations, which account for more than a third (39%) of their expected goals.
There could (and should) be more to come from Igor Thiago. The Brazilian has yet to reach the dizzying heights of last season, scoring just once from 3.13 xG, but the opportunities are arriving… he just needs to find the finish to match them.
Interestingly, the extended break adds a particularly nuanced wrinkle, with new national team boss Jurgen Klopp choosing to split his Germany squad.
That leaves Kevin Schade with a scheduled 13-calendar-day gap before Aston Villa, compared with just six for Vitaly Janelt. Aaron Hickey could feature for Scotland on Tuesday, demonstrating how differently teammates can experience the same international break.
Newcastle United
The Magpies’ ninth-place position looks considerably healthier than their underlying performances. Newcastle have eight points but sit bottom of the expected table (4.2), with nine goals from 5.29 xG masking their indifferent start.
Injuries have hampered the side in the early weeks, and the late introduction of Matthias Jaissle in place of the departing Eddie Howe didn’t help, with little time to influence the squad before the big kick-off.
The main concern is how much Newcastle are allowing their opponents. They have conceded a league-high 97 shots, committed the most errors leading to shots and generated the fifth-lowest xG themselves. However, the quality of their finishing has helped compensate for a lack of control.
The potential return of Joelinton, who is training with the squad, would be huge, while the news on Anthony Elanga is better than expected, with a return in week six or seven possible.
Tino Livramento continues to be dogged by injury, but the break has afforded some valuable recovery time, with Dan Burn, Nico Gonzalez and Jacob Ramsey all nearing a comeback.
Chelsea
And finally, Chelsea… who, under Xabi Alonso, have provided exciting attacking football, in stark contrast to their continued defensive troubles.
The Blues have scored ten goals from 7.29 xG, yet conceded 12 from 8.82 xGA: the league’s largest negative gap…
Opponents have also registered a league-high 32 shots on target, with 70.8% of attempts coming from inside the penalty area. Five errors have led to shots, two of which ended as goals, and opponents have been given plenty of opportunities to exploit.
Emiliano Martínez may help once fully settled, but a goalkeeper cannot solve the volume and quality of chances faced.
The break should help Cole Palmer and João Pedro, both of whom were withdrawn from international duty. Elsewhere, Moises Caicedo and Reece James will have benefited from more time on the training pitches as they battle to return to full fitness.
