FC Barcelona and Real Madrid meet this Sunday, October 25, at Spotify Camp Nou in one of the most eagerly awaited matches of the season.
Both teams have plenty of attacking talent. One of the big questions for sports betting punters is who will score the first goal.
The first goalscorer market focuses on four players: Raphinha, Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal and Diomande. Two stand out because of their goalscoring ability: Barcelona’s Brazilian forward and Real Madrid’s French striker.
Before we take a closer look at the first goal scorer odds for Sunday’s big game, you can learn more about how to bet on El Clasico in our informative guide.
Raphinha and Mbappé are the main contenders
Raphinha is LaLiga’s top scorer and wants to shine in El Clásico
The Brazilian comes into the match in excellent form. With 12 goals in La Liga, Raphinha is currently the league’s top scorer and one of Barcelona’s key attacking players. He gets into good shooting positions, runs into open space and makes the most of his chances.
These qualities make him a strong candidate to score first. Playing at Spotify Camp Nou could also give him extra motivation. He has a chance to make his mark in one of the biggest matches of the season. His odds to score first are 4.80, putting him among the leading choices in this market.
Mbappé can threaten Real Madrid’s opponents at any moment
On the other side is Kylian Mbappé, Real Madrid’s main attacking player. The French striker has scored 12 goals in 12 matches across all competitions this season. This shows how consistently he finds the net.
His speed, runs behind the defence and ability to beat an opponent one on one make him a constant threat. If the match leaves space for quick counterattacks, these qualities could be especially useful.
He also does not need many chances to make a difference. At odds of 4.80 to score first, he is one of the key players to consider in this market.
Lamine Yamal and Diomande are other options
Raphinha and Mbappé get most of the attention, but there are other options worth considering.
- Lamine Yamal to score first at 4/1
Barcelona’s young winger can change a match with his dribbling, creativity and ability to create chances.
He could score through an individual move, a shot from outside the penalty area or a run into the box. His odds of 4/1 put him close to the two main contenders.
- Yan Diomande at odds of 17/2
At odds of 17/2, Diomande is an interesting option for anyone looking for a higher-risk bet with a bigger potential return. Vinicius Jr.’s absence from El Clásico gives him a chance to start, which could give him a bigger role in Real Madrid’s attack. He also comes into the match with confidence after scoring a great goal against Leipzig.
That performance strengthens his case as a player who could make an impact. His odds are much higher than those of Mbappé or Raphinha, but his chance of starting and his good form make him worth considering in the first goalscorer market.
What to consider before choosing the first goalscorer
This market is especially difficult because picking a player who scores during the match is not enough. You must pick the player who scores the first goal.
A player could have a great match and score in the second half, but your bet would still lose if a teammate or an opponent had already scored. Consider these factors before you decide:
- Current form: Recent goals can give you an idea of each striker’s confidence and finishing ability.
- Attacking role: Players who take shots regularly and often get into the penalty area may have more chances to score.
- Tactics: Early pressure, space behind the defence and chances from set pieces can affect who scores first.
- Lineups: It is important to know who is starting and whether there are any last-minute changes before you bet.
Recommended pick is Mbappé to score first at 15/4
If we have to choose one player to score first in El Clásico, we pick Kylian Mbappé. The French striker is in great form, with 12 goals in 12 matches across all competitions this season. He has become Real Madrid’s main attacking player.
His speed, runs into space and finishing ability are good reasons to back him in such a demanding match. His odds of 15/4 also offer the same potential return as Raphinha, another strong candidate to score first.
Raphinha deserves to be among the leading choices after scoring 12 goals in LaLiga, but our pick is Mbappé. If Real Madrid can find space in Barcelona’s defence, the Frenchman has the skills to score the opening goal.
His recent record against Barcelona also supports this choice. Mbappé scored first in two of the last four competitive Clásicos.
Mbappé scored first in the league match on May 11, 2025, with a penalty in the 5th minute. He did it again on October 26, 2025, putting Real Madrid ahead in the 22nd minute.
In the other two matches, the first goalscorers were Pedri in the Copa del Rey final in April 2025 and Marcus Rashford in El Clásico in May 2026.
This record does not guarantee that it will happen again, but it adds a useful point to the analysis. Mbappé has recently shown that he can score first against Real Madrid’s long-time rivals. Good luck!
*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*
