Russell’s victory was founded on what happened at the end of that qualifying session. In fact, the destinies of the three drivers who ultimately contested victory were effectively decided as they intertwined at Turn Nine in the dying seconds of the final session on Saturday.
Max Verstappen crashed, because of an aerodynamic problem at the rear of his car, Red Bull said.
Antonelli mis-read the light boards beside the track and thought he had to back out of his lap for a double yellow flag.
Russell read them right, and lifted only as much as he needed to. That, combined with the quality of the lap up until then, put him on pole, Antonelli and Verstappen fourth and fifth.
Had each delivered to their potential, they probably would have lined up for the grand prix Russell-Antonelli-Verstappen, and been fighting from the beginning. Instead, Russell had some breathing space while Verstappen and Antonelli fought past the Ferraris, and that was enough.
That’s not to say the result would necessarily have been different. Mercedes calculated the pace of the top three finishers to be pretty much identical, the differential seen at the end as Verstappen closed on Russell while Antonelli closed on both simply caused by their different tyre life.
But that’s the what if. As it happened, Antonelli cost himself time and track position with a madcap first couple of laps in which he spent almost as much time off track as he did on it and dropped to fifth. Verstappen had to find a way past the Ferraris.
Even then, the race turned on pit stops and strategy.
The decisive point for Russell and Verstappen as they fought was the timing of the second pit stop. Verstappen had closed to within 1.3 seconds when Mercedes brought Russell in on lap 43.
It was early, and Russell knew that the remaining 28 laps were a lot to ask of his tyres. But it banked track position and ensured Red Bull had to run Verstappen longer, to build a tyre offset to come back at Russell over the remaining laps.
Had Red Bull got Verstappen in that lap, the positions would have been reversed, and likely Verstappen would have won.
Likewise, Antonelli. He ran longer to both first and second stops. As luck would have it, had Mercedes waited one more lap before his first stop, he would have caught the virtual safety car that was called for Carlos Sainz’s stricken Williams. And that would have likely made him the winner.
