Just before the beginning of each season, I like to conduct something of a squad audit on some of the clubs in the Premier League that you would expect to finish in the European positions. We are all so consumed by Arsenal that I think it pays to lift one’s head from the parapet on occasion and survey the landscape, meerkat style.
It gives you a good idea of what is going on in the market and what is going to need to happen in the coming weeks. (Elliott and I recorded a podcast (£) on this for Arsenal Vision patrons). There is a lot of business for clubs still to do, a lot of them are pushing up against squad cost ratio regulations and everyone has plenty of unwanted goods to sell.
Here are my back of the cigarette packet calculations for each team.
Liverpool
Need: a winger who can beat a man. A right-back. Probably a central midfielder.
Want to sell: Chiesa, possibly one of Harvey Elliott or Curtis Jones, Tsimikas, Bajcetic.
Manchester City
Need: a right-back, if they sell Rodri they will want one or both of Enzo Fernandez and Bouaddi. If they sell Savinho, Marmoush and Grealish they will probably need a wide player too.
Want to sell: Grealish, Savinho, Rodri, Reijnders, maybe one of Kovacic or Nico Gonzalez. Kalvin Phillips has just been loaned to Sheffield United, his fourth loan spell since joining the club.
Manchester United
Need: a left-back, Luke Shaw is STILL their first choice. Probably another central midfielder. Another attacker if they don’t keep Rashford. They could probably do with a top quality, senior centre-half too. Have gone for relatively cut price options in their signings so far.
Want to sell: Zirkzee, maybe Rashford to raise some money but nobody is buying him on that salary. They have loaned Onana and Bayindir.
Chelsea
Need: to sell a lot of players. Their squad is absolutely enormous and they have no Europe this season.
Want to sell: Adarabioyo, Badiashile, Neto, probably Delap, Gittens, Jackson, Sarr, Fofana, Guiu. They want to loan Mudryk out. City are interested in Gusto and Fernandez.
Aston Villa
Need: a right-back, a central midfielder and an attacker. On Wednesday alone, they were linked with moves for Aaron Wan Bissaka, Jonathan David and Joao Palhinha. It’s not a coincidence that the story emerged a few hours after these reports that Arsenal were going back in for Esri Konsa.
Want to sell: Ross Barkley, Leon Bailey. Are pushing up against SCR regulations so will probably have to listen to offers for better players- have been open to offers for Watkins and Martinez but nothing forthcoming. It might force them to consider Arsenal’s interest in Konsa…
TL;DR, the remaining three weeks of the window are going to be very, very busy and the need for each club to do business will drive the market. For example, don’t be surprised if Arsenal and Villa compromise on their respective valuations of Konsa and Arsenal sell Martinelli for a lower price than they would have liked to grease the wheels.
I have to say I find Napoli’s apparent interest in Gabriel Jesus a surprising bonus, I strongly suspected we were in contract termination territory there. Reiss Nelson and Fabio Vieira are difficult to move for salary reasons, especially since there has seemingly never been a Premier League market for the player.
The signing of Vieira was a failed punt but, in reality, as frustrating as it is to see so much of him in this summer’s pre-season friendlies, the signing has not had a negative impact on Arsenal’s ability to do business. In each summer since Vieira arrived Arsenal have bought Declan Rice and Kai Havertz, Mikel Merino, Martin Zubimendi and Bruno Guimaraes in approximately his position. Ethan Nwaneri and Max Dowman have also emerged. Vieira’s presence has not enervated Arsenal.
Players are also perfectly entitled to retain lucrative contracts that they sign and they can do as they wish with their careers. Nobody volunteers for a pay cut. However, if I were advising Fabio Vieira or Reiss Nelson at the moment, I would tell them both that they are now 26 years old. Remarkably, their next contracts will be their last prime contracts. Go away and get your career started because, even on a purely financial scale, if they don’t that big prime career contract continues to diminish future earning power.
Arsenal’s needs in the coming weeks are obvious. We know they want Esri Konsa and we know why. Saliba is such an important pillar in this team, both defensively and in possession. Konsa is 28 and Premier League ready, much like Bruno Guimaraes.
Arsenal may well be calculating that in Myles Lewis Skelly and Marli Salmon, if handled correctly, they might already have the players to come in when Bruno and Konsa’s stars fade. Arteta has shown he will not mess around when it comes to depth around his star players. He sanctioned a spend of over £50m on Noni Madueke last summer to act as Bukayo Saka’s third achilles tendon.
The signing of Bruno, to my mind, is an acknowledgement that there is risk around Declan Rice that has not been exposed yet- but could well be soon. Especially given Rice’s rumbustious style. Mosquera is a very good prospect but it’s a big jump for him to replace a technical and defensive pillar like Saliba on a medium-term basis.
As I said, I predict that a lot of Premier League clubs will start revising values of unwanted or dispensable players down so they can do the business they need to do. I fully expect Aston Villa and Arsenal to compromise on Esri Konsa and I suspect Arsenal will entertain a slightly lower valuation than they would have liked for Gabriel Martinelli given they have shown no real intention to extend his current contract.
All in all, it’s going to be a very busy and noisy few weeks in the market. Pretty much every single team will start the season underprepared, as one would expect in a World Cup summer. SCR regulations have been very positive for the league in my view, now clubs are less able to stockpile and have to consider ‘horse trading’ to get the players they would like, which leads to a better spread of quality throughout the league.
Having failed to land Vinicius Junior, Arsenal are probably going to have to compromise on what they want from a wide player. With very little ‘Ballon D’Or level’ talent available, they are probably going to have to hope that trading in Trossard and Martinelli for Tzolis and A.Nother player who perhaps has very different qualities pushes the needle in attack.
