For a brief moment on the first day of Wimbledon, there was reason to believe that Jannik Sinner was still processing his collapse at Roland Garros. Any loss in Paris would have been significant, considering the certainty with which he had dominated the clay court season beforehand, but it was the manner of his defeat that stung.
Sinner, it cannot be repeated enough, had been leading the innocuous Juan Manuel Cerundolo by two sets to love and 5-1 in set three when he crumbled physically. No matter how Sinner tried to emphasise his satisfaction at his achievements in the entire clay court swing, this was an excruciating loss.
So by the time the 24-year-old Italian had been edged out of a third set tie-break by a peaking Miomir Kecmanovic in round one of his title defence here, which sent him down two sets to one, alarm bells were ringing. Those concerns were compounded by Sinner having lost eight of his previous nine five-set matches, a pitiful return for a player of his calibre. This time, he kept a cool head, steadied his misfiring forehand and found a way through. He has not lost a set since.
Sinner had not faced a seeded player en-route to the semi-finals, but there were no further questions about his level after his spectacular performance against Novak Djokovic on Friday. He smothered the seven-time champion, continuing his incredible serving form in the key points, relentlessly dominating Djokovic from the exchanges and refusing to allow the Serb any way back.
It was an affirmation that normality had resumed as he chases his second title in succession. In the continued absence of Carlos Alcaraz, Sinner remains by far the best player in the world and continues to play like it.
As he sets his sights on Alexander Zverev, recent history shows how these matches usually play out. At the US Open in 2023, a bruising five-set, fourth-round win afforded the German his fourth consecutive victory against Sinner after losing their first meeting. Since then, Sinner has won nine matches in a row. Thanks to Zverev’s consistency and superiority against the rest of the field, they have played frequently, including four meetings this season, and Zverev has been Sinner’s punching bag throughout.
Sinner’s run of consecutive sets against Zverev stands at 14 and there have been some genuinely embarrassing showings from Zverev. In Paris last November, he lost 6-0, 6-1. In their last meeting, the Madrid Open final in April, Zverev had lost the match before he even entered the court. He looked utterly bereft of belief as he was beaten by a flawless Sinner, losing 6-1, 6-2.
Sinner swiftly bounced back from his shock defeat in Paris at the earliest possible opportunity, but his failure to consolidate his clay-court dominance has had even greater consequences elsewhere. Between Sinner’s second-round loss, Djokovic’s third-round defeat and a series of disappointing early exits from so many of the other higher-ranked players, Zverev’s steadfast consistency finally yielded his first grand slam title at Roland Garros.
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It was hardly the most emphatic major title victory – the No 14-ranked Flavio Cobolli was Zverev’s only opponent ranked inside the top 25 and the final was at times excruciating due to the tension radiating from both sides of the court.
Considering all that has occurred over the past six weeks, the most interesting aspect of this final is whether Zverev’s long-awaited first grand slam title represents a genuine turning point, a result that will positively affect his mental approach at the big tournaments. Will it allow him to play with freedom in the key moments of the biggest matches, attacking his forehand, closing down the net and playing to win rather than cowering under pressure? Or does his triumph in Paris simply represent a specific moment and he will remain conscious of his mental and technical inferiority to a player of Sinner’s calibre?
That he has even reached the Wimbledon final, completing his set of four major titles, is a positive sign. Zverev had never previously passed the fourth round here and grass was clearly his worst surface, but he has handled his business efficiently and navigated tricky opponents in Jiri Lehecka and Taylor Fritz.
However, the gulf between Sinner and the rest is so vast and nothing showcases that gap as clearly as Sinner’s record against Zverev. Once again, the burden is on Zverev to change it.
