Football is supposed to make sense. We spend the days leading up to a game studying the data, assessing form and working out what is most likely to happen. Then a bogey team turns up and ruins everything.
Every club has them: cursed grounds, opponents who suddenly become world-beaters, and records that survive changes of manager, players and occasionally, even stadium.
So, ahead of this weekend, I’ve looked for alternative reasons to back an outsider, hoping for an upset. Club birthdays. Historical grudges. European travel. A curse transported across Liverpool in a removal van.
None should outweigh the underlying data, and some probably shouldn’t mean anything at all. But where’s the fun in being sensible every week?
Hull City to beat Fulham: A Bogey Team with Terrible Timing
The Tigers might just be the bogey team Fulham supporters have forgotten to worry about. Across their previous six Premier League meetings, Hull have won four, including the extraordinary 6–0 victory in December 2013, when all six goals were scored after half-time.
An afternoon that escalated rather quickly. For the record, Fulham, meanwhile, have won only once, with the other meeting ending in a draw.
For Álvaro Arbeloa, however, the timing could be more unsettling than the history. The Spaniard is one of the leading contenders in the Premier League sack race, with reports suggesting he has ‘two matches to save his job’ and avoid becoming the first manager out of the door in 2026/27.
The Cottagers’ latest defeat has put him under severe pressure, and October is when disappointing starts begin to turn into managerial departures. Summer optimism has faded, the table looks less temporary, and owners begin to wonder whether the problem needs more than patience.
Fulham have been here before. Slaviša Jokanović was dismissed in November 2018 with the club bottom, having taken only five points from 12 matches. But that does not make another departure inevitable, although the visiting Tigers are hardly the ideal opponents to settle twitchy supporters…
Hull have the historical advantage, but Arbeloa could do with history taking the afternoon off.
Everton to beat Chelsea: The Curse Survived the House Move
The Toffees have won six of their last eight home league meetings with Chelsea.
Even a change of stadium apparently did little for the visitors, with Beto scoring twice at the Hill Dickinson in a three-nil win in 2025/26.
Everton had effectively packed the Goodison Park curse into a removal van and driven it down to the docks!
The Blues’ scoring record in this fixture makes this even stranger. Across those eight visits, Chelsea have managed just two league goals: one from Mateo Kovačić in December 2019, and Jorginho’s penalty in August 2022.
That means it has been almost seven years without an open-play Premier League goal…
Different managers. Different forwards. Different stadium. Same difficulty locating the net. A clean sheet is never guaranteed, but Everton supporters have rather more than superstition to work with here.
Bournemouth to beat Sunderland: Check the Departures Board
One point separates these sides, and both play European football on Thursday before meeting on Sunday. Their recovery schedules, however, look rather different.
Bournemouth host Sturm Graz at the Vitality Stadium, while Sunderland travel to Portugal to face Torreense in Leiria, about 90 minutes by road from Lisbon Airport.
One team finishes its European assignment at home, while the other has an overseas trip to negotiate before another away fixture on the south coast.
The Black Cats’ precise itinerary matters. Charter flights, overnight arrangements and the decision to return home or travel onwards will all affect the burden. Without those details, estimating their hours in transit would be guesswork.
But the imbalance is clear: Bournemouth have a preparation advantage.
Travel does not automatically produce tired legs or poor results. It can, however, eat into sleep, recovery and preparation—potentially useful margins when two teams are closely matched.
The interval between kick-offs is 66 hours, not optimal, and with doubts over Dan Ballard, Brian Brobbey and Thomas Meunier, Sunderland already look a little stretched.
Leeds to beat Manchester United: Uninvited Birthday Guests
Leeds United were founded on 17 October 1919, and Manchester United arrive at Elland Road the day after their 107th birthday. And as excuses for predicting a possible upset go, that is almost suspiciously convenient.
The Whites have earned plaudits for their football this season, with just one defeat in the opening six rounds, while Michael Carrick is under intense pressure and pushing Arbeloa in the sack race after failing to win any of his five previous matches (all competitions).
A hostile Elland Road hardly promises a quiet afternoon in which to put things right. Now add a birthday weekend and the opportunity to beat their biggest rivals. Of course, founding dates do not win football matches, and there are no recognised birthday adjustments in an expected-goals model!!
But these are alternative predictions, and Leeds have supplied the occasion and the atmosphere. All that remains is to stop Manchester United blowing out the candles.
Coventry to beat Tottenham: History Knows the Score
If you are looking for strange reasons to believe in an upset, Coventry versus Tottenham is an excellent place to finish.
Let’s go back to 1987, when the Sky Blues faced a heavily fancied Spurs side in the FA Cup final and won 3–2 after extra time, delivering the club’s greatest result.
Nearly four decades on, that victory should have absolutely no bearing on Monday night. So naturally, we are using it anyway to mount further pressure on third-sacking favourite, Roberto De Zerbi.
Ten years before that Wembley triumph, Coventry also beat Tottenham 3–2 in the League Cup. And the winning habit continued into the Premier League era.
Coventry beat Spurs 2-0 at White Hart Lane in their first-ever away match of the competition back in August 1992, and the Sky Blues went on to win four of their first five Premier League visits to Tottenham…
And now, in 2026/27, Coventry have momentum and confidence to accompany the nostalgia following back-to-back league wins, including a 4–1 demolition of Newcastle on Monday night that ended their 25-year wait for a top-flight home win in emphatic style.
Spurs are historically strong at home against promoted opposition, which offers an obvious counterargument. But we have come this far with birthdays, bogey teams and a travelling stadium curse. So, it would be a shame to become entirely rational now.
The fixture is Tottenham vs Coventry… and my mischievous prediction: 2–3.
History has already supplied the script twice. We’re simply requesting a third copy!
