However, Finland’s semi-final victory against Serbia has changed the picture.
As a League B runner-up, Finland were below Wales – who topped their League B pool – in the group stage rankings.
The Finns, ranked 22nd in the world, now face Italy – who are 14th in the Fifa rankings – in their play-off final.
Should Finland win, a Welsh triumph against Norway would send Wilkinson’s team directly to the World Cup.
If Finland are eliminated, however, Wales will know success against Norway would mean the inter-confederation play-offs await.
Results in the six other European play-off finals are irrelevant because no other side is ranked below Wales.
The European nation who ends up in the inter-confederation play-offs will enter at the second stage, meaning they would need to win a single knockout game.
There will be six teams involved in all, including two Concacaf nations, one from Conmebol and two sides who come through a preliminary phase – featuring Chinese Taipei, Uzbekistan, South Africa, Papua New Guinea, Ghana and Ecuador – which takes place in November and December.
