The Scottish Premiership looks deceptively tricky this weekend, but Ben Dinnery is here to help Final One Standing players with their selections ahead of the action.
Celtic are the standout option on win probability, but the obvious pick is not always the smartest long-term play. Some players may already have used them, while others may want to preserve the division’s most reliable side for a more awkward round later in the competition.
That creates a familiar strategic dilemma: follow the market leader or trust the underlying numbers to identify safer alternatives with stronger value.
Recent form only tells part of the story. Expected goals, chance quality, defensive vulnerability and tactical matchups can reveal opportunities the league table alone may miss. For those looking beyond Celtic, Hibernian, St Johnstone and Hearts all make credible cases.
Hibernian vs Aberdeen
At first glance, this looks like a meeting between two sides still searching for rhythm.
Hibernian have won two and lost four of their last six league matches, while Aberdeen have recorded two wins, one draw and three defeats. Recent form offers little certainty, but the underlying data makes a stronger case for the hosts.
Hibs’ biggest problem has been turning chances into goals. Their 10.21 expected goals is the fourth-highest total in the William Hill Premiership, behind only Celtic, Rangers and Hearts, but they have scored just seven times.
That shortfall suggests they are creating enough high-quality opportunities to deserve better results. If their finishing moves closer to expectation, then their improvement could arrive quickly. And Opta’s expected-points table supports that view. Hibernian sit seventh, two places above their actual ninth-place position, while Aberdeen sit in tenth, two places below their current standing.
The visitors’ defensive profile is a particular concern: they rank fourth-highest for expected goals conceded, third for shots allowed and second for attempts faced on target.
That should give Hibernian room to generate chances, and Martin Boyle looks the most likely route to a breakthrough. The 33-year-old has scored twice from 2.09 expected goals and attempted 10 shots in only 306 minutes, averaging 0.21 expected goals per effort.
Hibernian are given a 52% probability of victory, the second-highest of the weekend behind Celtic. Their recent results may be unconvincing, but the chance creation is strong enough to suggest this could be the fixture in which performance finally translates into outcome.
St Johnstone vs Falkirk
Falkirk’s victory over Hearts last weekend was impressive, but one win should not obscure the problems that have characterised their opening six league matches.
The Bairns remain in tenth and are yet to win away from home, collecting only two points from their first three trips. St Johnstone, meanwhile, have won two of their three league fixtures at McDiarmid Park.
Falkirk’s defensive numbers strengthen the case for St Johnstone. The Bairns have conceded eight goals, but opponents have generated 12.23 xG from 97 shots. Only Kilmarnock have a higher expected-goals-against total, and that level of defensive exposure is hard to survive.
Their pressing strategy appears to be part of the problem. Falkirk have the second-lowest PPDA in the Premiership, behind only Rangers, indicating one of the division’s most aggressive presses. However, that pressure has not always been matched by defensive organisation, with opponents recording 11 fast breaks — the second-highest total in the league. By comparison, Rangers have conceded five and Celtic only three despite also pressing aggressively.
St Johnstone’s attack is also more encouraging than its modest volume metrics suggest. They sit eighth for expected goals and ninth for shots, yet only two teams have scored more than their eight league goals. The Saints may not create a flood of chances, but they have shown they can make their best openings count.
Josh Fowler is the obvious player to watch. The striker leads the early-season scoring charts with four goals and a 50% conversion rate. That level of finishing is unlikely to hold across an entire campaign, but in a survival-style format, timing matters — and this may be the moment to ride his hot streak!
With a 47% projected win probability, St Johnstone are not as strong as Hibernian. Still, with home advantage and the visitors’ defensive openness, the Saints are a viable alternative for players willing to accept a little more risk.
Kilmarnock vs Hearts
Kilmarnock finally ended their miserable start to the Premiership season with a 1-0 victory over Hibernian last weekend.
However, that first win does not fully disguise the scale of their problems, particularly at Rugby Park, where Killie have lost all three home league matches, scoring once and conceding 10.
Hearts will be looking to exploit those weaknesses as they attempt to bounce back from a surprising 2-1 defeat at Falkirk.
Offensively, the Jambos look far superior to their hosts. They have scored 13 goals from 10.93 expected goals while averaging around 16 to 17 shots per game. Kilmarnock, meanwhile, have underperformed across their attacking metrics. In simple terms, Hearts create more volume, convert more efficiently, and pose the greater threat.
The defensive contrast is even starker. No team has conceded more goals than Kilmarnock (14), and those chances have come from 113 shots, with more than three-quarters of those attempts arriving from inside the penalty area. Hearts have been much more secure, and last weekend was the first time since the opening round that they conceded more than once.
And James Wilson could be the player best placed to exploit those weaknesses.
The young Hearts striker has been highly efficient during the opening weeks, scoring three times from five shots. His average of 0.37 xG per attempt is particularly impressive, and against a Kilmarnock defence allowing so many efforts from close range, he should be well placed to find high-value opportunities.
The underlying data presents a persuasive case for Hearts. They create more, concede considerably less and possess an in-form striker suited to exploiting precisely the type of chances Kilmarnock repeatedly allow. With a projected 47% probability of victory, Hearts are a strong alternative for Final One Standing players looking beyond Celtic.
