Under any normal circumstances Aryna Sabalenka would not have lost her third-round match at the Cincinnati Open last week. For all of her unforced errors, indecisiveness and the obvious tension surrounding her tennis, the world No 1 had led the unheralded Sára Bejlek 5-1 in the first set tie-break and then 4-1 in set two. She gave herself more than enough chances to close out a comfortable win.
Instead Sabalenka returns to New York trying to find a path through her greatest crisis since she first reached No 1 in the rankings more than three years ago. That straight-sets loss in Cincinnati extended a mediocre 17-7 record dating back to the beginning of April during which she has not reached a final. She has just one more chance to turn her fortunes around as she tries to claim her first grand slam title of the year at the US Open, the tournament she has won on the last two occasions.
Such is the competition at the top of women’s tennis, her rivals are congregating at her front door. Elena Rybakina begins this tournament sitting at No 1 in the live standings and in control of her own destiny. Sabalenka must win the title to have any hope of retaining the top ranking, but Rybakina will become the new No 1 regardless of all other results if she reaches the semi-finals. Should either Coco Gauff or Jessica Pegula win the title and Rybakina fails to make the semi-finals, they would take top spot. This additional pressure could further add to Sabalenka’s woes, but perhaps, after 97 consecutive weeks as the undisputed best player in the world, this is exactly what she needs.
There are other unanswered questions. Rybakina’s physical condition is uncertain after she was forced to retire from her quarter-final against Iga Swiatek last week due to a leg injury. A year after she spent this lead-in week to the US Open changing her service action, and parts of her matches in tears, Gauff has rebuilt confidence in her serve and the 2023 champion produced some of her best tennis during her Cincinnati Open title run. Fresh from her own success in Toronto, the 2022 US Open champion Swiatek looks similarly rejuvenated after struggling badly with anxiety and nerves in many matches this year. Pegula, a finalist in Cincinnati having defeated Swiatek, remains as consistent as ever and will put pressure on her rivals.
The strength at the top of women’s game is reflected in the fact that every player inside the top 11 currently holds a WTA 1000 title or above. They have each shown that they are capable of winning the biggest tournaments in the world.
Things could hardly be more different in the men’s draw. As was the case when he exited the French Open in round two, Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal from the US Open with a knee injury has cracked this tournament wide open. Carlos Alcaraz is clearly capable of greatness whenever he enters the court, but the prospect of him launching a serious challenge in his first event back after a four-month layoff due to a right wrist injury and only a few weeks of training seems fanciful. Although he has never been the strongest doubles player, Alcaraz’s rustiness and the caution with which he hit his serve in the mixed doubles competition alongside Serena Williams only reinforced this sentiment.
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It was Alexander Zverev who took advantage of the void in Paris to win his first grand slam title and, as the top seed, he is high on the list of contenders again. The two biggest winners in the weeks leading up to the US Open, Montreal and Cincinnati champions Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils, are young players who have long viewed themselves as worthy of competing for major titles. Such is the cruelty of the draw, the close friends have been drawn to face each other in the fourth round.
Otherwise, just about everyone is in with a shot. The French Open finalist Flavio Cobolli continues to play some of the best tennis of his career, reaching the semi-final in Cincinnati. The rise of 19-year-old Rafael Jódar, who was ranked No 369 this time last year, continues unabated. A group of US players, including Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Learner Tien and Brandon Nakashima have found their best form at the right time. Félix Auger-Aliassime, the third seed, will try to replicate the immense level he demonstrated on these courts last year on his run to the semi-final.
Perhaps the most interesting question of all is where Novak Djokovic will land over the next few weeks. Had any of the grand slam tournaments been this wide open in 2025, he would have been heavily favoured to become the oldest champion in history. But a year is an eternity at Djokovic’s advanced age. He has continued to put himself in contention at the grand slams, reaching the Australian Open final and Wimbledon semi-final, but he also has to manage a constant stream of physical problems that only worsen over the course of a fortnight. However, these are not normal circumstances, and he is far from a normal tennis player, so the pursuit of grand slam No 25 is still alive in New York.
