A typically understated Elena Rybakina stepped up to the microphone for her speech after her triumph at Indian Wells in 2023, her long-awaited first WTA 1000 title, and one of her first objectives was to recognise the efforts of her opponent. Rybakina congratulated Aryna Sabalenka on a strong fortnight and noted that it was the first time she had beaten the Belarusian. Sabalenka’s mouth instantly curled into a mischievous grin and, as ever, she could not halt her impulsive thoughts: “I will make sure it is the last time,” Sabalenka said, laughing. Rybakina, herself also smiling, responded instantly: “No. No, no, no. We’ll see next time.”
There has since been a next time, another next time and several next times after that and as Sabalenka and Rybakina, the top two players in the world, face off at the US Open, this latest encounter proves beyond doubt they have established themselves as one of the best recent rivalries in women’s tennis.
The statistics alone are impressive. It was only in 1988 that the Australian Open shifted to hard courts. Since then, this is just the second time that the same two female players have met in the final of the Australian Open and US Open, the two hard-court grand slams. Like Steffi Graf and Arantxa Sánchez Vicario in 1994, the only other players to do so, these two finals were also preceded by a meeting at the WTA Finals at the end of the previous year.
In the buildup to this final, the dominant storyline in the women’s tour was the second seed Rybakina’s pursuit of Sabalenka’s No 1 ranking, which she sealed by defeating the Olympic champion Zheng Qinwen to reach the semi-finals here for the first time. This is just the third time in the 21st century that a grand slam final will be decided between two players who will switch places at the No 1 spot after the tournament. On both previous occasions, Caroline Wozniacki’s win over Simona Halep at the 2018 Australian Open and Serena Williams’s triumph over her sister, Venus, at Wimbledon in 2002, the match was won by the incoming No 1.
It seemed for a while that the rivalry between Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek was destined to define this era. They were, and still are, the two most successful players of this current generation and they have played some classic matches against each other. Somehow, fortune has conspired against them. Despite twice being one point away from doing so – Sabalenka held match point against Karolina Muchova in their 2023 French Open semi-final and Swiatek the same against Madison Keys in the 2025 Australian Open semi-final – they have still never contested a grand slam final.
Sabalenka and Rybakina, meanwhile, just keep on finding their way back to each other. Even here in New York, where they had the third and fourth best players in the world, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff, to contend with in the semi-finals, they still won. This will be their 18th meeting, with Sabalenka holding a 10-7 lead, and their third grand slam final. Sabalenka’s victory over Rybakina from a set down to win her long-awaited first grand slam title at the 2023 Australian Open was an instant classic. This year in Australia, Rybakina’s victory from 3-1 down in the third set to earn her second grand slam title was a worthy sequel.
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The best rivalries are often defined by contrasts. There is nothing of the sort in terms of the way they approach their games on court, looking to serve big and take the first strike early in the rally, but somehow this still works. They have continually inspired the best from each other. There is great clarity in understanding that nothing but an incredibly high level of ball striking will be sufficient to win.
It is, however, difficult to think of two personalities so diametrically opposed. Sabalenka is as extrovert and emotional as a champion has ever been. Rybakina, whether she beats the world No 200 or wins Wimbledon, famously betrays no emotions at all. Over the past few years Sabalenka and Rybakina have established themselves as two future hall of famers competing against each other in the biggest tournaments in the world. This meeting is a seismic occasion in itself, but the one certainty is that there will be a next time.
