The uncomfortable truth about College Football Playoff expansion is that for all the hand-wringing over automatic bids, guaranteed access and conference politics, the path to the postseason remains remarkably simple: win your football games.
That’s the part coaches don’t always want to hear and Oklahoma’s Brent Venables knows it.
The sport is marching toward a future where multiple conferences are lobbying for guaranteed entry and protected spots, hoping to eliminate some of the uncertainty that comes with a selection committee room full of subjective opinions. On the surface, it’s understandable. Nobody wants a 10-2 season reduced to a debate show argument in December.
But even with expansion, automatic qualifiers and additional at-large berths, the teams that consistently make the playoff conversation are the ones handling business on Saturdays.
“If you want to be in complete, total control, win your games,” Venables said this week at SEC Meetings. “It worked in our favor in November, where we had a really challenging last four games, and we took care of business. And that ultimately was a separator for us to be able to get into the playoff, where had we not done that, had we not gone 4-0, we probably didn’t deserve to be in. I’m good with that.”
Last season, the Sooners were ranked No. 12 in the first CFP rankings at 7-2 overall and knew the margin for error the rest of the way over their final three games was zero to warrant consideration. Oklahoma then beat fourth-ranked Alabama, No. 22 Missouri and LSU to close it out before earning a first-round home game.
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The CFP selection committee has flaws. Every system does. Human beings are involved, which means interpretation, bias and disagreement will always exist. One season, strength of schedule matters most. The next, head-to-head results become the defining factor. Many complain because there is no perfect formula.
Yet the teams left arguing on Selection Sunday are usually the same ones pointing to a September upset loss, a missed opportunity against a ranked opponent or a late-season collapse that cost them control of their own destiny.
The reality is playoff access has never been more attainable than it is now. More spots mean greater room for error. More spots mean a second loss isn’t necessarily fatal like it used to be. More spots mean teams outside the traditional power structure finally have legitimate pathways into the bracket.
What expansion doesn’t guarantee is immunity from disappointment.
“Don’t be on the wrong side of it in that one game,” Venables said. “That’s what I would say. Don’t leave it to the officials to make a decision in the game, don’t leave it up to anybody else to win your games. You’re not going to sit there and piss and moan and complain when you have an opportunity to do it on the field.
“So, maybe easier — and again, I have, you’re talking about somebody that has compassion and empathy for people who are on the wrong side of it and had a fantastic year, and for whatever reason, they didn’t get voted in to (it). I see it both ways.”
Venables mentioned legitimate gripes for 10-win Vanderbilt not getting in last season, while Texas coach Steve Sarkisian vouched for his own three-loss Longhorns deserving a bid primarily due to schedule strength.
There’s no perfect system. A Big Ten contender can’t expect preferential treatment after losing the games that matter most. And a Group of Five champion still has to prove it’s worthy of inclusion by stacking victories.
That’s why Venables delivered a blunt truth about college football’s most obvious but often ignored reality. While administrators and commissioners negotiate debate formats and access, the solution for most programs remains unchanged. Stop worrying about the committee. Stop worrying about the number of bids your conference receives. Win enough games and none of it matters.
The playoff may be expanding. The politics may be changing. But college football’s oldest truth remains undefeated: take care of your Saturdays, and the rest usually takes care of itself.
Expansion is inevitable
The Big Ten and ACC now have the Big 12 joining the cause after its coaches unanimously backed a 24-team format this week and said they would consider adding a 10th conference game annually to further strengthen schedules. Numerous SEC coaches publicly said they were fine with an expanded bracket, despite league commissioner Greg Sankey pumping the brakes on a move happening soon.
Playoff expansion feels less like a possibility and more like an eventuality. With many voices signaling support for a larger bracket, it’s a matter of when — not if — Venables says, even if the current system works.
“It ain’t going to stay the same,” Venables said. “At some point in time, it’s going to change. I don’t know when that is, but we’re 12 now. I’m great at 12. I was great with four, and I liked the BCS model. You know, one thing I liked about the BCS model or just when you had two teams that were, all of a sudden, they were chosen for that — the bowl system was a fantastic thing. You still could have a fantastic year with a real, pure bowl system. There’s more finality.
The argument for expansion is simple — more teams create more perceived access, more meaningful late-season games and, perhaps most importantly, more revenue. Conference commissioners aren’t in the business of shrinking opportunities for their members. They’re trying to secure as many postseason pathways as possible, particularly in an era where league strength and television value have become intertwined.
Expansion also serves as insurance. The larger the field, the less likely a conference’s titans will be left out after a controversial selection process. That’s a selling point administrators can take back to presidents, athletic directors and television partners alike.
The resistance remains understandable. Critics worry the regular season loses value. Others believe a larger bracket rewards teams that haven’t earned championship consideration. Those concerns are unlikely to stop the expansion train, however.
College football’s power brokers have spent the last decade proving that more inventory, more television windows and more postseason access generally win out. With public support growing among key stakeholders and few financial reasons to stand pat, the sport appears headed toward another expansion cycle.
The details will be debated. The number of teams will be negotiated. But the direction of the sport seems obvious. College football’s postseason is getting bigger very soon.
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