Win two of three games, and you’ll make the NBA Finals.
That’s the directive for the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder, as they’re tied up at two games apiece in the Western Conference Finals after San Antonio won Game 4 at home on Sunday night.
Now, the Spurs are road underdogs in Game 5, even though the Thunder were held to just 82 points without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell in Game 4. Williams (hamstring) is questionable for Game 5 while Mitchell (calf) is listed as out.
The Spurs’ defense was the story of Game 4, and Victor Wembanyama (33 points) was aggressive from the jump to help his team avoid a 3-1 series deficit. The Spurs were able to win and cover the spread on the road in Game 1, but can they take Game 5 to set up a close-out game at home in Game 6?
Oddsmakers don’t seem to think so, as San Antonio is a +180 underdog in this series even with the Thunder dealing with some injuries. OKC’s dominance at home (34-7 in the regular season, 5-1 this postseason) is hard to look past as long as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in the lineup.
Still, the Spurs have held the two-time MVP to under 40 percent shooting from the field while forcing him to turn the ball over 11 times in four games.
In today’s edition of Peter’s Points, I’m avoiding betting on a side – though I will have a pick for one in today’s betting preview for Game 5.
Instead, I’m taking a few Spurs players in the prop market, including Wemby after he put together a strong Game 4.
1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record
- 2025-26 season record: 311-268 (-5.38 units)
- 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
- OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1602-1504-27 (+27.77 units)
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
- Victor Wembanyama 25+ Points (-135)
- De’Aaron Fox-Devin Vassell Scoring Parlay (-124)
Victor Wembanyama 25+ Points (-135)
Wembanyama has scored 26 or more points in three of the four games in this series, and he was clearly looking for his shot from the jump in Game 4.
The All-NBA center ended up with 22 shot attempts and nine free-throw attempts on Sunday night, putting together a 33-point game. He’s now scored 74 combined points in the two Spurs’ wins, taking over 20 shots in both games.
So, I expect him to be aggressive in Game 5 with a chance to swing this series. Wembanyama has seven games with 25 or more points in the playoffs, and he’s shooting better from the field (53.4 percent) and from 3 (37.1 percent) than he did in the regular season.
The Thunder don’t have a one-on-one answer for Wemby, and he’s been shooting a few more 3-pointers in this series (19 over his last three games) than he did in the first two rounds. That gives him a little higher of a floor when it comes to these scoring props, especially if he’s going to hit over 37 percent.
De’Aaron Fox-Devin Vassell Scoring Parlay (-124)
- De’Aaron Fox 10+ Points
- Devin Vassell 12+ Points
De’Aaron Fox 10+ Points
De’Aaron Fox missed the first two games of this series with a high-ankle sprain, but he’s played well since returning in Game 3.
The star guard had 15 points, seven rebounds and six assists in Game 3, shooting 7-for-14 from the field in nearly 31 minutes of action. He then followed that up by putting up 12 points, 10 rebounds and five dimes in 30:56 in Game 4.
While Fox shot just 5-for-13 in Game 4, he has a clear floor as a scorer since he’s taking so many shots and still is able to handle over 30 minutes of playing time on his ankle.
I’m buying him in this scoring prop in Game 5, especially since the Spurs need his offense with role players like Julian Champagnie and Keldon Johnson struggling. Fox may not hit his season average (18.6 points per game), but he should be in the mix for around 15 points in Game 5.
Devin Vassell 12+ Points
Devin Vassell has been awesome in this series for San Antonio in the playoffs, averaging 13.7 points on 11.3 shots per game. I’m buying him as a scorer in Game 5, even though he’s shooting under 45 percent from the field.
A former lottery pick, Vassell has 12 or more points in 10 of 15 playoff games this season, and he’s scored at least 10 points in every game. That gives him a really solid floor, and I think he gets to 12 or more points for the fifth game in a row this series.
Vassell needed just seven shots in Game 4 to reach 13 points, knocking down a pair of 3s in the process. With Fox and Dylan Harper still at less than 100 percent, Vassell is going to be called upon to play heavy minutes (39.5 per game in this series) the rest of the way.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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