It’s Blackout Sacramento. California closes out their regular-season home slate by unveiling an all-black alternate kit against an Old Glory side that finally tasted home victory last week. Third hosts fourth, both with playoff math still alive, and the rematch of a Week 5 game that California controlled. Here’s how to bet it.
The Storylines
California: Two Losses, One Last Home Game
California are 3-2 in their last five and dropped back-to-back matches to New England (Week 7) and Chicago (Week 8). The good news? They’ve banked a table point in every single fixture this season — they share the league lead in bonus points (7) with table-topping Chicago. The bad news? Their last two losses came with cracks showing.
Against Chicago in Week 8, California missed 32 tackles and conceded 17 penalties — both the worst marks in Week 8. They’ve also picked up eight yellow cards and two reds this season, second only to Anthem in indiscipline.
This is their final home game of the regular season before back-to-back away trips at Anthem (Week 10) and Seattle (Week 11). They’re unveiling their black alternate kit and rebranding their X account as “Blackout Sacramento.” If they play like the All Blacks, it’s an inspired marketing moment. If they don’t, it’s a long night.
Old Glory: First Home Win Sparks a Turnaround?
Simon Cross’s side snapped a three-game losing streak last week with a 24-23 win over the three-time defending champion New England Free Jacks — their first home win of MLR 2026. Jason Robertson slotted the match-winning penalty in the 69th minute and was named Player of the Week, kicking 663 meters and adding seven tackles for good measure.
The defense was elite: 146 successful tackles, only 8 missed — the fewest in Week 8. That’s a problem for a California team that struggles to find tries when defenses get organized.
But Old Glory’s attack profile is concerning. Across the season they have the fewest carry meters per game, the fewest offloads, and the lowest gainline success rate in MLR. They’re winning ugly. Sunday’s matchup tests whether that grind-it-out style travels to Sacramento.
This is their final road game of the regular season. They sit fourth in the table, four points behind California, with New England (5th) and Anthem (6th) breathing down their neck three points back.
Week 5 Rematch: California 36-23 Old Glory
These two met in Week 5 at George Mason Stadium and California walked out with all five table points despite having less of the ball:
Stat | Old Glory | California |
|---|---|---|
Possession | ~60% | ~40% |
Territory | ~60% | ~40% |
Visits to opp 22 | 16 | 10 |
Tries scored | 3 | 5 |
Handling errors | 17 | 8 |
The story: Old Glory had the territory, but California was clinical. Five tries from 10 visits to the 22 vs Old Glory’s three from sixteen. Ben Houston scored a first-half brace for the visitors; Kirby Myhill, Connor Robinson, and John Powers added second-half tries for Old Glory.
Half-time score was 17-6 California. That was the fewest first-half points Old Glory have managed all season.
The Odds
Sportsbook | California ML | Old Glory ML | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DraftKings | -280 | +180 | CAL -7.5 (-125) | 58.5 (-120/-120) |
-275 | +200 | CAL -7.5 (-110) | 58.5 (-115/-115) | |
-240 | +205 | CAL -7 (-125) | 58.5 (-120/-115) | |
-295 | +215 | CAL -7.5 (-106) | 58.5 (-108/-108) |
3-Way Moneyline (incl. draw): – DraftKings: CAL -280 / Draw +1400 / OGDC +200 – FanDuel: CAL -240 / Draw +2200 / OGDC +205
Line Shopping Notes: – Best California ML value: -240 at FanDuel – Best Old Glory ML value: +215 at Fanatics – Best California spread: -7 at FanDuel (half-point hook savings over the field) – Best Old Glory spread: +7.5 (-106) at Fanatics (lowest juice on the dog) – Best total: 58.5 (-108) at Fanatics either side (lowest juice on both)
Key Matchups to Watch
1. California’s Tackling vs Old Glory’s Set-Piece Attack
California missed 32 tackles last week. Old Glory will pound the gainline and look for second-phase ball off mauls — especially with Paul Mullen and Rick Rose (both Team of the Week last round) carrying. If California’s discipline doesn’t tighten up, Robertson will kick this game from the tee.
2. Jason Robertson’s Boot vs California’s Game Management
Robertson kicked 663 meters last week and is the engine of Old Glory’s territorial game. California aren’t a kick-tennis team — they want ball in hand. Whoever wins the territory battle controls this one. In Week 5, Old Glory got the territory and still lost — that’s a hard ceiling on what Robertson can do alone.
3. The Sacramento Crowd
This is California’s final home game before two road trips. The “Blackout Sacramento” moment, the alternate kit reveal, the playoff implications — there’s emotional juice here. California is 50% at home this season (lost to Anthem W1, beat New England W2, beat Seattle W4, lost to Chicago W8). They tend to play with pace when the crowd’s behind them.
The Picks
Spread: California -7 (FanDuel, -125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The half-point hook at FanDuel is the move here. California won the Week 5 fixture by 13 (36-23), and the matchup profile is even better this time around: they’re at home, it’s their kit-reveal moment, and Old Glory’s attack is the weakest in MLR by every meaningful metric.
Old Glory’s defense is real, but their last meaningful road performance against a top-half side was a 49-31 loss in Chicago. They cover with their defense; they don’t win blowouts on the road.
Best book: FanDuel (-7 at -125)
Total: Over 58.5 (Fanatics, -108) ⭐⭐⭐
Last meeting hit exactly 59 points. California’s defense has been leaky over the past two weeks (33 tries conceded would be a lot — they shipped 36 to Chicago alone). The “Blackout Sacramento” energy points to California playing with pace, and Old Glory will get their three tries the same way they have all year — penalty-driven, slow phases that still finish.
The risk is Old Glory grinding this into a Robertson kicking duel. But California won’t let that happen at home in their last regular-season home game.
Best book: Fanatics (Over 58.5 at -108)
Moneyline Parlay: California ML + California -7 ⭐⭐⭐
If you’re confident in the cover, parlay it with the moneyline for a price boost. Skip the standalone California ML — you’re paying -240 to -295 for a team that wins this game by a touchdown.
Old Glory Live Look-In
Old Glory has scored first-half points in just one of their last three meetings vs California. If they trail at the half by 10+, the live moneyline at +400 or better is a swing-for-the-fences play given their Week 8 comeback DNA.
Best Bets Summary
Pick | Line | Book | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
California -7 | -125 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | |
Over 58.5 | -108 | ⭐⭐⭐ | |
Cal ML + Cal -7 parlay | — | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Best Bet of the Game: California -7 at FanDuel — the half-point hook over -7.5 across the rest of the market is free EV on a team that already covered this exact number in the Week 5 reverse fixture.
Where to Bet on MLR
The best sportsbooks for Major League Rugby betting:
FanDuel — Best spread (hook at -7) and best California ML
Fanatics — Lowest juice on the total and best Old Glory ML
Caesars — Cleanest juice on the spread (-110) and 3-way draw market
DraftKings — Strongest 3-way pricing if you fancy the draw at +1400
Lines current as of 2:16 PM ET, May 24, 2026. Shop for the best price before placing your bets.
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