Well, the final nail is in the coffin. Ollie Watkins will leave Aston Villa this summer, with a £51m deal almost in place with Saudi Arabian outfit Al-Hilal.
But what a ride it’s been, huh? Watkins joined the Villa from Brentford in 2020 for a club-record £33m fee. There he scored 26 goals for the Bees across 2019/20 Championship season, but perhaps even he failed to foresee the riches he would plunder under Unai Emery’s wing.
This is not a transition, but instead, a transmutation from a title-winning team to something wholly different. A new and exciting crop of players, but an inexperienced and untested group still. Joao Gomes’ red card at the heart of a 4-0 thrashing at Brighton to kick off the campaign illustrated that.
It’s been a testing period for the Midlands side. Watkins’ exit will hurt most, but it’s going to aggravate the loss of Morgan Rogers, who signed for Chelsea in a £116m deal earlier this summer. He still hasn’t been replaced.
Why Aston Villa still haven’t replaced Morgan Rogers
In fairness, Aston Villa moved quickly to replace Rogers, securing Alejandro Garnacho from Chelsea on loan until the end of the season. The deal includes a buy option.
The thing is, Garnacho hasn’t been hitting the right beats for a while now, and Emery needs to ensure this transition does not damage the wider project at Villa Park, whose supporters have been riding the crest of a wave of late, celebrating a title and passage into the Champions League.
Rogers posted 31 goals and 29 assists across two-and-a-half years with the Villa, his rise conjoined with his outfit’s emergence as one of England. But his powerful running, anticipation and awareness when building up attacks marks him as “one of the world’s best“, in the view of Sky Sports’ Jamie Redknapp.
Garnacho, who scored one Premier League goal across a disappointing term with Chelsea, will not cut the mustard alone. More is needed – especially if Watkins leaves, as is expected.
Luckily, the window is still open for a while yet – and Emery and co are determined not to let these sweeping summer changes derail the illustrious outfit that has been set up and cemented over the past several years.
How Aston Villa could replace Rogers at the last minute
Rogers may no longer play for Aston Villa, but he is not irreplaceable, and with a deal being closed for Chelsea striker Nicolas Jackson as Tammy Abraham closes in on a loan move to newly-promoted Ipswich Town, Emery is also pushing to sign a goalscoring winger who plays with an echo of the Three Lions attacking midfielder.
According to The Athletic, Aston Villa are in talks with AC Milan over a potential deal for Rafael Leao, who could be available for an eye-catching £42m fee as the Italians look to cash in.
Galatasaray also have a vested interest, but the NSWE believe that Leao, 26, would prefer a move to Villa Park, and are working on a loan deal with an obligation to buy. Previous reports have suggested a £42m payment would do the trick.
Like Rogers, Leao is a versatile player, intelligent enough to break from his trademark position down the left wing and feature as a makeshift striker or indeed on the alternate flank.
Rafael Leao – Career Stats by Position | ||
|---|---|---|
Position | Apps | Goals + Assists |
Left winger | 201 | 61 + 56 |
Centre-forward | 93 | 31 + 8 |
Attacking midfield | 22 | 3 + 5 |
Right winger | 3 | 1 + 0 |
The right footer knows a thing or two about scoring goals, but he is also a gifted playmaker, and in Serie A last season, he ranked among the top 10% of positional rivals for pass accuracy, big chances created and expected assists (xA) per 90.
Expected Assists (xA) is a metric designed to measure the probability of a pass becoming a goal assist.
In fact, while he only registered three assists in 2025/26, the Portuguese forward hit ten across three previous campaigns, with last year’s decrease owing to the profligacy of his teammates (as xA suggests), but also circumstance. At Villa Park next season, that might not be a problem. There has been a lot of change, but the Villans’ 11.4% conversion rate last year placed them fourth in such standings.
Rogers was a big factor there, one of the most unrelenting goalscoring midfielders in the division, but he could be effectively replaced by a winger such as Leao, who has only missed 37 big chances since the start of the 2022/23 Serie A season. In that timeframe, he has bagged 41 goals.
For reference, Watkins missed 19 big chances in the Premier League last year, scoring 16 times.
Leao is not Rogers, but he is a powerful and prolific attacking midfielder with the dynamism and unpredictability to surpass the impact of Garnacho and ensure Aston Villa continue to impress under Emery’s wing. Hailed as “one of the best left wingers in the world” by Como scout Ben Mattinson, he would be a brilliant pick up.
If the manager can emerge from this turbulent transfer window with a reshaped team whose direction is still charted northward, it would be the ultimate representation of his world-class ability.
By signing Leao, reaching that destination will be made a whole lot easier.
