Final One Standing is about choosing your moment. Backing the strongest available team might get you through this weekend, but once you use it, that club disappears from your options.
Gameweek 8 offers four contrasting routes: the Gunners’ defensive reliability, City’s attacking firepower, Chelsea’s favourable home matchup, and Brentford’s appeal as an alternative to the heavyweights.
The challenge is balancing survival now with flexibility later. Injuries, European exertions and individual matchups all matter—and a perfect record does not guarantee a perfect selection.
Here are the four teams making the strongest case.
Arsenal vs Everton
On paper, the Gunners are the round’s safest option, with a 67% win probability.
Arsenal have conceded a league-low 5.56 expected goals, with opposition attempts averaging just 0.07 xG, which should make things difficult for an Everton side that has generated just 9.43 xG from 101 attempts.
However, losing Bukayo Saka to a midweek thigh injury does offer the visitors a little encouragement. Arsenal will miss a major source of creativity and goals from an attack already struggling to convert controlled possession into a clinical advantage.
Martin Ødegaard therefore becomes pivotal, having already created 13 chances and completed 149 passes in the final third, but he has no registered assists domestically.
Arsenal rank fourth in the league for expected goals (11.95), so their attacking foundations remain respectable, but it’s their defensive fortitude that gives me confidence. If the Gunners are still an option for you, then this is a credible week to use them.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City
Seven wins from seven make City an obvious attraction. Their league-leading 15.12 xG supports the attacking reputation, even if their defensive performances deserve more scrutiny than the perfect record suggests.
Villa’s numbers nevertheless will give City a boost. After losing key players in the summer, Unai Emery had to rebuild, and the data reflects that slow start: Villa have conceded 10.96 xG from 111 shots while generating only 8.49 xG themselves.
But City do have weaknesses, particularly from set pieces, where they have conceded 3.86 xG, although Villa may struggle to exploit this, with a league-low 0.54 xG from corners and free-kicks and only 12 attempts.
Of course, Erling Haaland remains the Cityzens’ principal threat, topping the scoring charts with eight goals from 5.68 xG. However, a late foot injury in GW7 kept him out of the Champions League starting lineup, so the striker may not be firing at full capacity.
That said, Villa cannot afford to focus exclusively on Haaland… Phil Foden has emerged from his domestic ban in sparkling form, with five goal involvements (4G + 1A) in 167 minutes, while Rayan Cherki has six goals (all competitions), 14 chances created in the Premier League, and 1.70 xA.
That level of firepower is worrying for a defence that already concedes plenty of chances. A 57% win probability is strong for an away side, but Haaland’s fitness and City’s vulnerability at set pieces make this a less secure selection than Arsenal.
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
The Blues’ win probability (56%) puts them just behind City, but their stronger attacking output makes them particularly appealing at home.
Chelsea have scored 17 league goals, while Tottenham have managed only six, half of which came in their first win of the season on Monday night.
The sides have attempted a similar number of shots—100 to 99—but Chelsea’s 17% conversion rate is almost three times that of their London rivals. Spurs’ league-low average of 0.08 xG per attempt underlines their difficulty in creating high-quality chances and making possession count.
That should offer some relief to a Chelsea defence that has had its own difficulties, especially with goalkeeper Emi Martinez unavailable for selection due to injury.
Morgan Rogers could be central to the matchup. Spurs’ aggressive press—100 pressed sequences and a PPDA of 8.9—creates a tactical question: can Chelsea escape the initial pressure and exploit the spaces beyond it?
Rogers offers both scoring and creativity, with four goals, 13 chances created and 1.37 xA. Chelsea’s three goals from fast breaks and three from direct attacks further show their ability to threaten quickly.
João Pedro adds five goals from 3.03 xG, and Cole Palmer gives Tottenham another attacking headache to solve.
This is a strong home option, especially if you don’t have Arsenal or City at your disposal. Tottenham will be buoyed by their first win and the return of James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski, but neither is fully up to speed after long-term injuries, and the hosts should edge this derby.
Hull City vs Brentford
Brentford offer a possible route to the next round that preserves the big hitters, though even with a 50% win projection, they are the riskiest pick of the four.
Only one point separates the teams, but their attacking numbers differ greatly: the Bees generate the fifth-highest league xG (11.84), while Hull are bottom with 6.76.
The Tigers sit with a +1 goal difference and just seven goals conceded; only three teams have fewer, but the underlying metrics suggest a big overperformance. Their 10.46 xGC comes from facing 102 shots (14th) and 34 on target (15th), and Brentford will test their resistance, particularly from dead-ball situations, where they rank second in the division with 40 attempts.
Igor Thiago is another important consideration. The Brazilian has been bubbling under the surface: his one goal from 3.69 xG represents a substantial finishing shortfall, but his average of 0.22 xG per shot suggests he is receiving high-quality chances, so an upturn in output may not be far away.
Keane Lewis-Potter, Kevin Schade and Mikkel Damsgaard add creativity and goal threat, giving Brentford options beyond set pieces.
Outside of this week’s Big Three, this is the most appealing alternative. The trade-off is greater immediate risk, especially with Yarmoliuk and Vitaly Janelt absent due to suspension… although the silver lining should see the return of Mamadou Sangare.
*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*
