The opening two rounds have already shown why reputation and short-term results cannot be trusted in isolation.
Several leading clubs have underperformed, promoted teams are discovering the unforgiving nature of the Premier League, and early underlying trends are emerging.
Sample sizes remain small, but we now have competitive evidence to assess alongside last season’s data, summer recruitment and longer-term performance patterns.
With future fixtures still to consider, here are four teams that stand out in Gameweek 3 of Final One Standing.
Brentford vs Sunderland
The Bees look to be one of the strongest selections of this game week. Brentford have begun the season in fine style, demonstrating exactly why many have tipped them to challenge for a European place. According to Opta, they have generated 5.55 expected goals so far – second only to Manchester United in the Premier League.
They now return to the Gtech Community Stadium, where they lost just three league fixtures last season and have already swept Tottenham aside this term.
Sunderland present an interesting opponent because their results continue to look stronger than their underlying performances. They exceeded their expected-points total by around 11 points last season, and without that overperformance, the Black Cats would have been considerably closer to the relegation battle.
There was also a marked difference between their home and away form. Sunderland averaged 1.74 points per game at the Stadium of Light but only 1.11 on their travels, while they conceded more on the road (28-vs-20) and scored fewer (17-vs-25).
And the early evidence suggests that this trend may be continuing. Sunderland have not defended particularly badly overall, conceding 2.75 expected goals across their first two matches. However, 1.80 of that came in their away loss at Ipswich on the opening weekend.
In addition, London has historically been an unhappy hunting ground too. Across their last 16 Premier League visits to the capital, they have collected only eight points and suffered 12 defeats. Brentford also won their most recent meeting convincingly, running out 3-0 winners.
Opta make Brentford a 60.7% chance, and the underlying evidence makes them one of the most appealing Premier League betting selections of this round.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur
The early-season data suggests this should be a closely fought contest, but I believe the gap between the two sides is greater than that projection suggests, with Forest (39.2%) marginal favourites.
Tottenham started the season with back-to-back defeats, and the performances are arguably more concerning than the results. Their approach has been predictable and relatively easy to contain, while there has been little evidence of the defensive improvement supporters would have hoped to see under Roberto De Zerbi.
Spurs have recorded the third-highest expected goals conceded so far, in combination with the division’s second-worst expected-goal difference. In contrast, Forest have been unfortunate not to collect more points, with a 2-2 draw at Anfield following on from an opening day loss to Leeds at the City Ground, and already there are encouraging signs of progress under Oliver Glasner…
The direction of the two squads also feels markedly different. Forest strengthened in several important areas and appear to be building with purpose. Spurs’ recruitment, however, has looked more scattergun, with adaptation to life under De Zerbi taking a little longer.
Sandro Tonali arrived on the back of a disrupted pre-season, while Mateus Fernandes is still working his way back to full fitness. Mykhailo Mudryk is another player who will take time to get up to speed, having spent the best part of 20 months suspended from football following an anti-doping violation.
There is also reason to question whether De Zerbi can quickly reverse Spurs’ away fortunes. Across his Premier League managerial career, his away win rate is approximately 30%. That figure fell to 28.6% during his time at Brighton, where there is a much larger sample to assess.
Forest have also developed something of a stranglehold in this fixture. They enter the game having won each of their last four meetings with Saturday’s opponents, fuelling even more optimism for three points. And while they may not be the most obvious selection this weekend, Forest could be one of the smartest.
Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth
Life under Matthias Jaissle has started well, with Newcastle favourites for the win over Bournemouth, who are adjusting to the post-Iraola era.
The Cherries arrive at a formidable St James’ Park, with defensive vulnerabilities already emerging. They have conceded 3.97 expected goals across their opening two matches—a bottom-six defensive return—while allowing their opponents seven big chances. That leaves Bournemouth with a projected clean-sheet probability of only 18% in the early kick-off…
For the Magpies, Yoane Wissa is beginning to look like the player that convinced Eddie Howe to part with £55m last summer. His first season on Tyneside was heavily hampered by injury, but a strong World Cup, followed by a solid pre-season, appears to be paying dividends.
Wissa has impressed, and the early numbers support the eye test. He is producing 0.71 expected goals per 90 minutes, up considerably from last season, and his shots inside the box have risen by around 16 per cent.
Newcastle were unlucky not to take three points against Liverpool in week one, conceding a 98th-minute penalty, before producing an impressive 2-0 victory away at Tottenham. However, this fixture does carry one substantial historical warning. The Magpies are winless in their last eight league meetings with Bournemouth, failing to beat the Cherries at St James’ Park since 2019.
But their rapid rise under Jaissle suggests they could finally end their hoodoo this weekend…
Manchester City vs Coventry City
Coventry have not performed as badly as their results may suggest. The side currently ranks sixth-best for expected goals conceded, indicating that the four goals they have allowed somewhat exaggerate their defensive problems.
However, that also illustrates the unforgiving difference between the Championship and the Premier League. Mistakes and half-chances that went unpunished in the second tier are suddenly being converted into goals.
More damaging was perhaps the Sky Blues’ failure to beat Hull in a fixture they would have identified as a major opportunity to collect three points against close rivals. They had home advantage, against a fellow promoted side, but they could not make it count.
That result may have dented their confidence, and if Coventry cannot win those matches, travelling to the Etihad immediately afterwards represents an extraordinarily difficult assignment. And the Cityzens’ record against newly promoted sides makes the enormity of the task even clearer.
They are unbeaten in thirty games – winning all 15 at home with a 90% success ratio and a 2.9 points per match average – a run that stretches back to 2021. Last season alone produced 11 goals across their three home matches…
This game will not define their season, but if Coventry want to beat the drop, then Frank Lampard needs to improve on his top-flight managerial record of only four wins in his last 32 Premier League matches.
In a weekend filled with difficult decisions, Manchester City are the standout selection!
