Four rounds into the Premier League season, and the early narratives are beginning to be supported—or challenged—by the underlying data and Ben Dinnery examines the latest Final One Standing gameweek ahead of the weekend.
Although the sample remains relatively small, patterns are emerging. Some teams are creating sustainable attacking opportunities, while others are surviving on results that their performances may not justify.
We are also beginning to see how promoted clubs are adapting and whether summer changes have genuinely strengthened or weakened established sides. Gameweek 5 offers a mixture of strong home favourites and more adventurous selections.
Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City
The Sky Blues’ return to the top-flight is becoming increasingly uncomfortable: four matches, four defeats and not a single goal scored.
Their latest setback was a damaging 5-0 home defeat by Brighton, and the underlying defensive numbers suggest the problems extend beyond one particularly difficult afternoon.
Coventry have conceded 7.54 xG—the third-highest total in the Premier League—from 63 shots. Those opportunities have resulted in 10 goals, meaning Frank Lampard’s men have conceded more than the underlying data suggests.
Their approach without the ball is particularly revealing. The Sky Blues’ passive play allows their opponents, on average, around 21.5 passes (PPDA), the highest in the division. Chuck in five errors leading to shots, two of which resulted in goals, and you begin to see where the problems lie.
In contrast, Nottingham Forest have a tight defensive unit, 4.12 xGoals Conceded—the third-lowest total in the Premier League—and a slight overperformance from the 42 shots they have faced.
Offensively though, Forest have been less than impressive, averaging just one goal per game, of which two were blanks… However, they are unbeaten in three, including a win at Villa Park last time out, and a home fixture against Coventry should set them up nicely for the international break.
Morgan Gibbs-White has been involved in three of four league goals, while his combined 2.61 xG and expected assists place him eighth among Premier League players. Seven of his eight chances created have come from open play, and his movement and goal threat could prove decisive.
Home advantage and the Sky Blues’ ongoing problems at both ends offer compelling context to the statistical model win probability of 50%.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace
Leeds have made an excellent start to the season and arrive on the back of an emphatic 4-1 victory over Newcastle.
They sit third and remain unbeaten, just reward for keeping faith in Daniel Farke. Leeds are organised without the ball and dangerous in attack, though their success has come from chance quality rather than sheer volume. Significantly, their average shot value is approximately 0.135 xG, a figure only bettered by Manchester City.
And it is Leeds’ attacking profile that appeals as they come up against a struggling Crystal Palace side, who will have to manage a quick turnaround with a game in Europe on Thursday night.
The Eagles have conceded 11 goals, more than any other Premier League team, while their 8.15 xGC is also the highest. And of the 71 shots faced, more than three-quarters have come from inside the penalty area.
Palace went through considerable change during the summer, and their new manager, Pierre Sage, has inherited a difficult rebuilding job. Defensively, the Eagles are struggling, having lost Maxence Lacroix and Daniel Muñoz… and in-form striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin could be the player who takes advantage.
After an injury-blighted spell at Everton, DCL appears settled, fit, and increasingly influential at Leeds. His 10 shots—joint-18th in the league—have generated 2.48 xG (6th), giving him the highest average shot quality of any Premier League player with at least 10 attempts, and he currently sits above the likes of Igor Thiago, Bruno Fernandes and João Pedro.
Leeds’ ability to create high-quality opportunities, coupled with the Eagles’ backline problems, creates a perfect storm, and 50% for the projected win could look fairly low come full-time.
Fulham vs Manchester United
United’s results have been underwhelming, but this fixture may offer them an opportunity to build momentum.
That confidence owes as much to Fulham’s weaknesses as it does to United’s strengths. The hosts have struggled at both ends of the pitch, and the tactical match-up could play directly into the visitors’ hands.
Fulham have conceded 7.51 xG—the fourth highest in the Premier League—despite facing only 54 shots: low volume, high quality, and United look well placed to exploit a Fulham side that is particularly vulnerable in transition. Under Alvaro Arbeloa, the side has already conceded twice from seven fast breaks, while United have registered two goals on the counter, with Bruno Fernandes providing the biggest threat.
His 16 shots have generated 2.29 xG, while his nine chances created have produced 1.12 expected assists. Fernandes continues to contribute substantially, and his strong record against Fulham, five goal involvements across 10 appearances, makes him an appealing asset this weekend.
Fulham, for all their issues, have generated a respectable 6.12 xG, but having scored only four times, their problem has been finishing rather than outright chance creation. That underperformance will not continue indefinitely, but it reflects a recurring concern that predates Marco Silva’s departure.
United remain difficult to trust, but the model gives them a 45% chance of victory, with a win helping to ease the mounting pressure on Michael Carrick.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa
Spurs’ start to the season is becoming increasingly alarming and sports betting punters will be wary of another flop.
Despite significant summer investment, there has been little evidence of improvement, and Roberto De Zerbi is already under pressure after only five matches, with Tottenham yet to score in the league.
The underlying attacking data illustrates the scale of the problem. Spurs have generated just 3.45 xG across their opening four matches—the second-lowest total in the division. Even more concerning is their inability to turn possession into a meaningful attacking threat. Tottenham average 59.8% with the ball, completing 502 passes in the final third, yet that territorial control has produced no goals.
They did, however, pick up a point against Everton, and were much improved at Anfield in the Carabao Cup midweek. Still, despite Aston Villa sitting second bottom, they could present a tougher test than many expect.
While the league-wide data does not currently support Villa, there are reasons to believe they can improve. After winning the Europa League back in May, UEFA’s technical analysis of the final highlighted the team’s tactical flexibility, organisation and ability to adjust their attacking approach against different defensive structures. And despite big changes within the squad, you cannot dismiss Emery’s ability to diagnose and solve tactical problems.
Away from the league, cup performances offer encouragement, with a 3-2 away win against Club Brugge and a victory over Coventry City in the League Cup, with Tammy Abraham scoring twice in the latter.
Those six goals show Villa can produce far more effective attacking performances than their league record currently suggests. Spurs, meanwhile, continue to look like an expensive collection of individuals without a coherent identity.
Villa represent the boldest of these four selections, and their numbers make this far from straightforward, but under Unai Emery, they have a realistic chance of outperforming the projections and securing a first league win of the season.
*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*
