The one thing everybody knew about quarterback Ty Simpson this spring was that they didn’t know enough about him. Simpson started only 15 games at Alabama before declaring for the NFL draft. He wasn’t prepared to start in the NFL. Then the Rams drafted Simpson with the 13th pick, giving him a chance to learn from Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford for a year or two before becoming L.A.’s starter, and immediately, analysts and fans wondered why the Rams drafted a quarterback who won’t play this year.
Our absurdly impatient culture has created an absurdly impatient league: When millions of people demand change today, they trick NFL owners into believing that they are deliberate if they wait until the end of the week. As a result, NFL franchises are the least patient multibillion-dollar operations imaginable. Each one employs 832 people to tap on their watch.
I have no idea if Simpson will be a good NFL quarterback. But the Rams are giving him his best chance at becoming one.
And this brings us to J.J. McCarthy. Surely you remember McCarthy. He was so bad for the Vikings last year that, roughly two games into his career, people seemed to decide he would be bad forever. Minnesota brought in Kyler Murray to compete with McCarthy—both take the field on Tuesday in the Vikings’ first OTA session—and the widespread expectation is that Murray will start and McCarthy is on his way to another franchise. (I plead guilty to generalizing, but I don’t think it’s a strawman argument; I think it accurately reflects the McCarthy discourse.)
McCarthy was bad last season (1,632 yards passing, 11 TDs, 12 interceptions, 72.6 rating). But step back and look at the bigger picture.
The Vikings drafted McCarthy in 2024. Like Simpson, McCarthy had fewer-than-ideal collegiate reps. McCarthy had started for Michigan for two years, had a 27–1 record in those starts and won a national title. However, those offenses were built around the run. Still, the Vikings believed in him.
Three weeks into training camp, McCarthy tore his meniscus. The team announced that McCarthy would miss his entire first season, and coach Kevin O’Connell said this:
“As our fans either have already come to find out or will in the future, this guy is so motivated and so dialed in. As excited as I was to draft him, he’s confirmed everything that I hoped to see. Our fan base and everyone should be excited about the fact that we’ve got our young franchise quarterback in the building.”
McCarthy returned in 2025. He played 10 games and threw 243 passes. Yes, he was mostly bad. But 10 games and 243 passes are a small sample size, and in McCarthy’s case, they are actually four minuscule sample sizes: He started two games; missed the next five with a high ankle sprain; returned for four games; missed one because of a concussion; started three more; missed one with a hand injury; and then started the season finale.
How many quarterbacks were good in their first 10 games and 243 passes?
Here are the numbers for every quarterback taken in the first round of his 2024 draft class through the game in which they threw their 243rd pass:
- Caleb Williams (No. 1 pick): 1,665 yards, 9 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 83.0 passer rating
- Jayden Daniels (No. 2 pick): 2,147 yards, 9 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 101.8 passer rating
- Drake Maye (No. 3 pick): 1,696 yards, 10 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 85.7 passer rating
- Michael Penix Jr. (No. 8 pick): 1,943 yards, 7 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 79.8 passer rating
- McCarthy (No. 10 pick): 1,632 yards, 11 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 72.6 passer rating
- Bo Nix (No. 12 pick): 1,530 yards, 8 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 81.4 passer rating
Other than Daniels, who performed like a star right away, there is not a whole lot of difference there. Stats don’t say everything, of course. One could reasonably argue that McCarthy had the best circumstances of the six and still had the worst numbers (and the worst tape). But 243 passes are not enough data. Josh Allen put up worse passing numbers as a rookie than McCarthy did last year.
O’Connell has said repeatedly, before and after trading for Murray, that he wanted to add “competition.” This sounds like he wants somebody else to start, but O’Connell has not said that.
When it comes to the specific task of getting the most out of whoever is playing quarterback, O’Connell is one of the top five head coaches in the NFL. If O’Connell has privately said McCarthy will never be a viable starter, then he is probably right.
But going from “we’ve got our young franchise quarterback” to “let’s move on” after 10 games would be a hell of a boomerang from O’Connell.
Two important, nonquantifiable moments from McCarthy’s 2025 season belong in this discussion:
In his eighth NFL game, a win in Dallas, McCarthy scored on a bootleg and did the slowest “griddy” on his way into the end zone—in direct defiance of O’Connell, who had warned him in practice not to do it.
McCarthy said that when O’Connell told him not to dance, he became more inclined to do it. Reacting like that showed obvious immaturity; admitting it showed a lack of awareness. This was college-kid behavior, not franchise-quarterback behavior.
The other moment: After his first NFL start, McCarthy became a father for the first time.
I’m not saying McCarthy played badly because he was changing diapers. But when you play quarterback in the NFL, you have to be completely focused on the job for most of your waking hours. McCarthy’s dance showed he was not completely focused on the job while performing it. Do you really think he could kiss his infant goodbye and lock in on beating the Falcons?
The Vikings do not need to dump McCarthy. They need to determine whether issues that held him back in 2025 are terminal. Signing Murray is a good way to do it. Two years ago, O’Connell said, “We’ve got our young franchise quarterback in the building.” This year, we’ll see if they have one under center.
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