The Premier League is only one week in, but the picture is already beginning to change.
The opening weekend gave us our first indication of which pre-season assumptions might hold up — and which may need revisiting.
At this stage of Final One Standing, however, the objective is not to be clever for its own sake. It is to identify the fixtures in which probability, underlying data and matchup combine to give us the strongest edge.
Four fixtures stand out this weekend. Some offer opportunities to attack perceived weaknesses, while others give us an early test of whether Gameweek 1 was signal or noise.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
City at Selhurst Park on Friday night are given a 57.5% chance of victory, but this feels like a fixture more likely to be decided by the Eagles’ weaknesses rather than anything impressive from City.
The Cityzens won this fixture comfortably at home and away last season, and another easy three points cannot be ruled out. Palace have lost significant quality in recent transfer windows and, off the pitch, the situation in South London appears increasingly unsettled.
Pierre Sage has already addressed rumours surrounding interest in Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaïla Sarr, although the latter is said to be struggling with a groin issue. The talismanic duo contributed 19 goals last season from 25.42 xG, almost half (46%) of the team’s total… and that kind of output is difficult to replace at this level.
That uncertainty is particularly concerning given that Palace won only four times in front of their supporters last season, the fifth-worst record in the division, and haven’t beaten City there since 2015.
That said, City themselves were far from convincing in week one, mounting a late comeback win over Bournemouth. Enzo Maresca surprised pundits and fans alike by deploying Marc Guehi as a defensive midfielder and starting Nico O’Reilly as a No.10. The experiment raised more questions than answers and did little to ease concerns about the post-Pep era.
For City, this looks like an excellent opportunity for Erling Haaland to get off the mark. He has eight goals in five appearances against Palace, and, despite a quiet opening game, he still registered 0.85 xG.
However, more intriguing is Rayan Cherki, who stole the show with his 27-minute cameo in Gameweek 1: he produced four key passes, created one big chance and registered 0.47 xA. His introduction transformed City… and following another week of training, Cherki should start, and in doing so, City carry a much greater threat going forward.
Chelsea vs Brighton
This has all the hallmarks of a great match-up, with both sides demonstrating real attacking intent in their opening fixtures…
But Brighton will need to improve after struggling on their travels last season. They finished in the bottom seven for away performances, winning only five times, and of the teams that avoided relegation, only Newcastle and Leeds had a worse record.
It also has to be said that while the performance was good against Aston Villa, they are a club in total disarray, and therefore, context needs to be considered and confidence tempered. This game at Stamford Bridge should tell us much more about their potential to become one of the Premier League’s leading sides.
The Blues’ opener at Craven Cottage offered a clearer indication of their progress under Xabi Alonso. There were encouraging signs offensively, although defensively, there are still areas for improvement.
Joao Pedro, Morgan Rogers and Cole Palmer all caught the eye, while the latter looked sharp following a season disrupted by injury. The England international may feel he has a point to prove after his omission from the World Cup squad.
Palmer looked much closer to his best, and there is genuine belief that he will recapture his levels from 2024/25 that catapulted him into the limelight. And the 24-year-old loves this fixture, scoring five goals in six games, although Chelsea have lost their last four meetings with Brighton across all competitions.
This will be a proper test for both sides, but I’m with the projected data, which favours the Blues!
Coventry City vs Hull City
The battle of the promoted sides. Despite contrasting results last weekend, there is a strong statistical case for backing Frank Lampard’s men (50.9%), although as always, I am keen to stress that we are looking at a very small sample size.
Gameweek 1 perhaps told us more about the opposition than it did about these two: Hull shocked Manchester United, while Coventry, unsurprisingly, were completely outclassed at the home of the current Premier League champions.
Coventry could look to target the Tigers’ defence, which conceded 66 times in the Championship. While that figure doesn’t look too bad in isolation, it came from a massive 82.45 xGA… And the bulk of their defensive unit remains intact, with Lewie Coyle, Semi Ajayi, John Egan and Ryan Giles all starting. Nobel Mendy was the only new signing…
Nevertheless, this should be tight. The sides played out two 0-0 draws last season, although Coventry clearly won the xG battle… This has the feel of a classic early-season six-pointer. The Sky Blues have home advantage, stronger underlying numbers and, in my view, greater quality.
Hull are carrying a lot of injuries and have had considerable turnover during the summer, and at this level, the Premier League has a habit of exposing weaknesses very quickly.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal
At this stage of Final One Standing, sometimes the smartest play is also the most obvious, and the Gunners look exceptionally well placed to get a result at Villa Park.
Brighton’s demolition of Villa on the opening weekend probably shouldn’t have been a huge surprise. Unai Emery has lost several key players this summer, while further departures could follow, with Ollie Watkins and Emi Martínez also seemingly heading towards the exit.
It has been blow after blow for a team that won the Europa League in May, and despite over £160m worth of investment, they will have to wait for returns, with Joao Gomes suspended and Brian Madjo and Johan Manzambi both in the treatment room.
Contrasting fortunes defined Round One: Villa produced the second-lowest xG (0.29) while conceding the second-highest xG (3.77). Arsenal, meanwhile, were completely dominant against Coventry and looked every bit like a side capable of challenging for another Premier League title.
However, history has us treading carefully. Villa have won three of the last six meetings, drawing one, and former manager Unai Emery will be keen to continue their good run in the face of adversity. Previously, the Villans managed just three wins from 14 encounters, demonstrating Emery’s impact since his arrival.
But I fear for Villa heading into this one, and the numbers agree, with Arsenal huge favourites (61.5%), one of the biggest this weekend.
