And we’re back. Final One Standing returns, and Gameweek 1 immediately gives us some big decisions to make.
The temptation at the start of any season is to play safe, pick one of the title favourites and worry about next week when it arrives. But surviving Final One Standing isn’t simply about identifying the team most likely to win. It’s about knowing when to use them.
Every selection removes another option from the board, so fixture difficulty, team news, injuries, pre-season form and the strength of the opposition all need to be weighed against a club’s potential value later in the campaign.
So, who gets us safely through the opening weekend without unnecessarily burning one of our strongest cards? Before we discuss football betting implications, let’s get down to Final One Standing and matchday one.
Everton vs Crystal Palace
On paper, this looks like an excellent opportunity for the Toffees to start with three points. The projected data rates it as the sixth-easiest fixture of the round, but there are stronger reasons than the schedule alone to consider them your first pick!
Everton are desperate to improve at home. They won only five league games at the Hill Dickinson Stadium in 2025/26, collecting just 23 points — the seventh-worst home record in the Premier League. And Saturday represents an immediate opportunity for David Moyes to remedy that.
The biggest difference between these clubs currently is stability.
While Everton continue under the stewardship of one of the league’s most experienced managers, Palace enter the season under new management, having lost Oliver Glasner to Nottingham Forest.
The defensive departure of Maxence Lacroix is also particularly significant.
Everton, meanwhile, have added Brennan Johnson and Christian Norgaard to their ranks – although the latter is expected to miss out – with Tyrique George and Merlin Röhl turning loan moves into permanent transfers. A reasonable pre-season should serve them well both physically and tactically, with a 3-1 victory over Newcastle the standout result earlier this month.
Palace could also be weakened in attack. Jean-Philippe Mateta and Yeremy Pino returned late following the World Cup, and neither has featured during pre-season, potentially leaving the visitors without two major attacking threats.
Given their form last season, this is by no means a gimme, but the circumstances strongly favour Everton.
Hull City vs Manchester United
This might be one of the weekend’s most strategically interesting selections.
United have a strong 57% probability of victory, making this the third-most likely win of the weekend.
Do I trust United this season? Not particularly. But do I believe they will beat Hull on the opening weekend? Yes! And that distinction matters.
Major concerns surround United, and an indifferent pre-season has done little to calm nerves. Summer spending has been relatively limited, and several obvious weaknesses remain unresolved.
Diogo Dalot, Lisandro Martínez, Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw could once again form the back four — essentially relying on players who have been heavily scrutinised throughout recent seasons.
However, Hull are unlikely to possess the quality required to expose those weaknesses, and even a flawed United side should have enough individual quality against a team that massively overachieved to reach the Premier League.
Strategically, there is a strong reason to use United early doors, as Champions League football will soon stretch an already thin squad.
Therefore, this may be one of the best opportunities to get them off your FOS board early.
Arsenal vs Coventry City
If you simply want to survive Gameweek 1, then this is the obvious selection.
The projected data gives Arsenal (65%) the best chance of a win this weekend, and the side arrives with momentum following an emphatic 3-0 victory over Manchester City in the Community Shield.
For Coventry, this is about as difficult a return to the Premier League as they could have imagined. A busy close season has seen the Sky Blues add six players to their Championship squad in an attempt to bridge the enormous gap between the second-tier and the top-flight. And Friday night will provide an immediate demonstration of just how substantial that jump will be.
Everything points towards a comfortable home victory. The only real question is whether you want to use arguably the league’s strongest team this early.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United
This is the most intriguing — and riskiest — of the four selections.
The arrival of Oliver Glasner at the City Ground is fascinating, and the new head coach has had plenty of opportunities to implement his strategies and methods.
Forest have played nine pre-season matches, giving Glasner some much-needed time to work tactically with his squad. There have already been encouraging signs, most notably an impressive 1-0 victory over Barcelona.
But Leeds should not be dismissed entirely… Dominic Calvert-Lewin has enjoyed an excellent summer with three goals and two assists, while the additions of James Trafford and Harry Wilson have strengthened in important areas.
Their pre-season form has also been impressive, with only one loss and a 4-2 victory over Liverpool demonstrating the threat they could pose.
However, one significant weakness remains: away form. Leeds collected only 15 points on the road last season.
There is considerably more jeopardy here than with Arsenal or Manchester United, but that creates strategic value. If you fancy taking a calculated gamble, then this could be an excellent opportunity to use Forest.
The opening weekend gives us exactly the dilemma that makes Final One Standing so compelling. Arsenal are comfortably the safest option, Everton have plenty in their favour, while Forest offer an intriguing pick. But my opening selection is Manchester United.
This isn’t necessarily a vote of confidence for Michael Carrick — quite the opposite – it’s about recognising an opportunity. Hull arrive with major questions surrounding whether their Championship performances can translate to the Premier League, while United, with home advantage, should have more than enough.
So, we’ll keep Arsenal safely tucked away for another day and get Manchester United off the board while we can…
One selection down, and hopefully, many more to come.
Good luck — and welcome back to Final One Standing!
