NBA mock draft: 2 recent champions rise in stunning lottery simulation

Of course, Lendeborg’s March Madness production and his hypothetical NBA translation are two different subjects. If you’ve been following the discourse around the tournament, you have probably seen opposing fans bemoan that the Michigan star is TwEnTy SeVeN years old or whatever age they decide to choose on that day.

Advertisement

Lendeborg is 23 years old, and he turns 24 before his rookie year in the NBA begins. Yes, this is his sixth season in college. He’s a month older than Josh Giddey, who is in his fifth NBA season. His age absolutely matters in projecting him the league — by the time he starts his second contract, he’ll already be 28.

Where the Michigan star goes in the draft all comes down to fit. In this projection, the Los Angeles Clippers get the Indiana Pacers pick from the Ivica Zubac trade because it slides out of the top four. After also landing Darius Garland at the deadline, are the Clippers really going to take Kingston Flemings or Darius Acuff or Mikel Brown? I don’t think so. Arizona guard Brayden Burries would make some sense, and Tennessee wing Nate Ament will also probably get consideration. I just like Lendeborg a lot more intriguing than both even if he’s super old for a rookie.

Lendeborg has a rare combination of size, skill, and two-way versatility. Listed at 6’9, 240 pounds, with a 7’4 wingspan, he has the length and weight of an NBA center. This season at Michigan has proven he can play off the ball next to other bigs while using his skill set to maximize everyone else on the floor. His shooting indictors are encouraging by making 37.2 percent of his threes on 8.2 attempts per 100 possessions with an 81 percent stroke from the free throw line. He’s a serious defensive playmaker with a 4.6 percent block rate and 2.1 percent steal rate and tons of chasedown blocks all over his super-super-senior season tape. He’s a willing passer and a capable driver, he doesn’t turn the ball over, and he hits the glass hard on both ends. What’s not to like?

Derrick White was 23 years old as a rookie and he turned out pretty well. Age matters, but it’s not everything. Yaxel is good enough to overcome it.

Advertisement

Which first-rounders will go back to college for big NIL deals?

The money in college basketball is so good right now that it’s only natural this draft will be thinned by a few returners who can’t pass up a big NIL offer. It happened last year with Labaron Philon and Lendeborg as likely first-round picks who returned to school, and guess what, both improved their stock big time this year.

Which possible first-rounders could return next season? We took four players out of our last mock draft just because there has been some speculation they could potentially return to college:

• Allen Graves, F, Santa Clara: I’d expect Graves to be one of the most sough-after players in the transfer portal if returns to college, and that probably means a multi-million dollar salary. Graves only played 57 percent of the available minutes this year and couldn’t help himself from fouling constantly despite incredible protection in a sixth-man role. I’d take him in the first if he enters, but spending a year at Kentucky or Arizona or North Carolina or Kansas sounds pretty cool, too.

• Tyler Tanner, G, Vanderbilt: What if North Carolina went after Mark Byington and Tyler Tanner this offseason? Hey, raiding Drake for its head coach and star point guard took Iowa to the Elite Eight this year. I’d likely consider Tanner a top-20 pick if he enters this draft, but if he goes back to school he might be the best player in college basketball next season. I’m still mad his half-court heave rimmed out in the round of 32.

• Ebuka Okorie, G, Stanford: Okorie went from the No. 119 recruit to a possible first-round pick during his freshman season at Stanford. This draft is deep with so many point guards that it may benefit Okorie to stick around an extra year and try to play himself into a lottery pick. He may cause an even bigger bidding war in the portal than Tanner and Graves do.

Who are the Final Four’s other NBA prospects?

It’s pretty incredible that there are eight projected first-round picks in this mock draft playing in the Final Four. That’s 26.6 percent of the entire first-round!

Advertisement

• Michigan (3): We went over Lendeborg already. Aday Mara — a 7’3 center who can protect the rim in drop coverage, crush the glass at both ends, and throw some fantastic outlet passes — should be a first-round pick lock despite his scoring touch concerns. Morez Johnson is another obvious first-round talent in my book as the draft’s most versatile defender, and maybe also its best. Trey McKenney will probably be an NBA player eventually, but not this year.

• Arizona (3): Brayden Burries is a likely lottery pick as a well-rounded shooting guard who fits somewhere in the Quentin Grimes-to-Derrick White spectrum (admittedly a super wide spectrum there). Koa Peat is probably (?) a first-rounder for his defense, play-finishing, and beefy playmaking, but his total lack of shooting makes him another player who could potentially return. Most outlets don’t have Motiejus Krivas as a first-rounder, but he’s so good protecting the paint, hitting the glass, and even making his free throws. He would be a huge second-round steal if he falls, and he’s another player who could potentially return to school.

• UConn (1): Braylon Mullins will go down in history for the shot that beat Duke. He battled a couple injuries as a freshman and never really popped until his Elite Eight moment, but I think he’ll be a solid pro as a volume three-point shooter off-the-ball who can also score in transition and add some point-of-attack defense. Tarris Reed has been UConn’s best player on this run, and could be an early second-round pick. Alex Karaban is another possible second-rounder this year.

• Illinois (1): Keaton Wagler feels like a lock for the top-10 as a 6’6 point guard with elite off-the-dribble shooting despite athleticism concerns. I really think there could be as many as six players on this Illini team who get at least a cup of coffee in the NBA. 7’1 twins Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic are stretch bigs whose size and shooting touch will draw some interest at the next level. I love David Mirkovic, a high-IQ, high-motor brawler on the glass who can handle the rock and shoot it off the dribble a little bit. Andrej Stojakovic — Peja’s kid! — doesn’t have his dad’s shooting, but he’s a good slasher and a fierce on-ball defender. Kylan Boswell is also a feisty defender who hits shots and moves the ball. Wagler is the only likely first-rounder, but the rest of these guys could play in the NBA eventually.

Do you like your team’s pick?

Wanted someone else? Let me know in the comments. It’s going to be an amazing Final Four. The draft lottery awaits on May 10.