2026 NBA MVP Odds, Favorites & Prediction: SGA Closing in on Second Straight Trophy

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

It may be time to engrave Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s name on the Michael Jordan Trophy.

The Oklahoma City Thunder guard has seen his NBA MVP odds shrink from -300 a week ago to -5000 today as the regular season rapidly comes to a close.

Advertisement

SGA’s prohibitive odds are a testament to his spectacular play as well as a reaction to Luka Doncic’s recent hamstring injury, which will cause the Lakers star to fall short of the 65-game threshold required to qualify for award consideration.

Doncic, who averaged 37.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 7.4 assists in March, had been second on the odds board prior to his untimely setback.

🏀Latest 2026 NBA MVP odds

Odds from bet365, one of our best betting sites. Sign up with our bet365 promo code, or get one of our other sportsbook promos.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wasn’t the only player who saw his odds move. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic also benefitted from Luka Doncic’s injury, moving from +6000 to +5000.

Advertisement

The Serbian big man has enjoyed another sensational season, leading the Nuggets to 50+ wins while becoming just the second player in NBA History to average a triple-double over multiple seasons.

NBA MVP prediction

With voters increasingly sensitive to both team success and two-way impact, SGA has the cleanest path to an MVP narrative this season. He’s the best player on a top-two team in the West, elite efficiency from all three levels, and offers real defensive bite at the point of attack. His game scales without drama as he can dominate in isolation or flow within movement-heavy actions, and he gets to the line a ton without forcing bad shots. If Oklahoma City’s depth keeps their net ratings gaudy when he sits, while his on/off still pops, he’ll own the “drives winning” storyline that tends to decide close MVP races.

Doncic has put up video-game numbers again, yet the bar for heliocentric guards keeps rising, and defensive skepticism plus any midseason usage management could ding his case.

Advertisement

By contrast, SGA’s steadiness, durability, and two-way credibility give him multiple avenues to “win” the discourse even if raw counting stats are a tick lower, especially if the Thunder post the league’s best record.

My late February wager on Nikola Jokic is a value play as he’s simply too good to ignore at plus odds. The issue with Joker is that he must play at least 65 games to qualify for the award, so any additional missed time could kill his candidacy.

NBA MVP stats comparison

📈 NBA odds over time

This year’s MVP chase has been a heavyweight melee. Follow along all season as we update this graphic with contenders rising and falling.

💰2026 NBA MVP opening odds

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +150

• Giannis Antetokounmpo +1200

Advertisement

NBA MVP betting data

The following data is courtesy of BetMGM.

• Highest ticket percentage: Cade Cunningham 21.9%

• Highest handle percentage: Cade Cunningham 17.1%

• Biggest liability: Cade Cunningham

• Odds leader: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -300

Cade Cunningham emerged as a popular choice among bettors early in 2026 when Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic were both injured and appeared in danger of qualifying for the 65 games required to win the MVP award.

Unfortunately Cunningham will now miss an extended period of time as well after being diagnosed with a collapsed lung. The case is considered mild, but will keep him out of the line-up for at least eight games, and possibly longer.

Popular NBA awards odds

How is the NBA MVP decided?

The MVP award is one of the most prestigious honors in professional basketball—and one of the most debated. But how is the MVP actually chosen?

Advertisement

🗳️ MVP Voting Process

The MVP is determined by a panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters from the U.S. and Canada, as well as a fan vote that counts as one ballot. Each voter selects five players, ranked from first to fifth place. The point system is as follows:

• 1st place vote: 10 points

The player with the highest total point tally at the end of voting is crowned NBA MVP.

📊 What Do Voters Consider?

While there’s no official checklist, MVP voters typically weigh several key factors:

• Individual statistics: Points, assists, rebounds, efficiency, advanced metrics like PER or Win Shares

• Team success: MVPs are rarely chosen from losing teams and Top 3 seeds are the norm

• Narrative and storyline: Voters often reward players overcoming adversity or carrying a franchise

• Consistency and availability: Games played, durability, and clutch performance matter

👀 Voter Biases and Trends

Some unofficial trends also influence MVP outcomes:

• “Voter fatigue”: Players who’ve already won may need to outperform their own past seasons to win again

• New blood bias: Voters sometimes prefer rising stars over repeat winners

• Position favoritism: Guards and forwards tend to dominate MVP voting, although that trend has been changing in recent years

📈 NBA MVP trends

Here are some trends you may want to consider before placing a bet on the NBA MVP:

Advertisement

• Repeat winners are somewhat common. Jokic’s 2022 win marked the 12th different player to have won the award two (or more) years in a row.

• The MVP usually comes from an elite team. Since 1985, only seven MVP winners have come from a team that didn’t finish first or second in its conference.

• The award is usually given to a player with a few years of experience. A rookie hasn’t won MVP since Wes Unseld in 1969, and only two MVPs have been 22 or younger (Wes Unseld and Derrick Rose).

• Centers have historically dominated the MVP award. While they went on a two-decade drought between Shaquille O’Neal (2000) and Nikola Jokic (2021), centers have now won four of the last five MVPs.

📜NBA MVP betting history

A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and their opening odds.

Odds courtesy of Sports Odds History.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.