We’ve entered the final stretch of the NBA’s awards races, where top candidates are making their cases on a nightly basis. Victor Wembanyama, for one, made it clear Monday why he thinks he deserves to be MVP this season. But will he win?
With less than three weeks to go in the regular season, we asked our 10-person NBA voting panel to predict the winner for each individual award to gauge where each race currently stands. Here are the results:
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Who will win Rookie of the Year?
Voting breakdown
Kon Knueppel, Hornets: 90%
Cooper Flagg, Mavericks: 10%
Is the Rookie of the Year race already over? What was looking like a tight two-person race between Knueppel and Flagg at midseason has become Knueppel’s award to lose, according to our panel.
The Hornets guard is second among rookies in scoring at 19.1 ppg, behind Flagg’s 20.3 ppg, and leads the league in 3-pointers made while shooting 43.4% from distance. But it’s his impact on a playoff contender, plus the fact Flagg missed nearly a month with a foot injury, that appears to have him firmly in the lead.
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Currently the betting favorite at -210 odds, according to BetMGM, Knueppel would make it two straight No. 4 picks to win the award, after San Antonio’s Stephon Castle took home top honors last year.
Who will win Defensive Player of the Year?
Voting breakdown
Victor Wembanyama: 100%
Well, this race appears to be completely over. Wembanyama’s defensive impact at 7-foot-5 has been a game-changer for the Spurs, who look like the NBA’s best defense — allowing only 103.5 points per 100 possessions — when Wemby is on the court. The Spurs center dominates the paint, leading the league in blocks with three per game and pulling down 11.2 rebounds per game.
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The only intrigue that remains, then, is if Wembanyama will reach the 65-game threshold for awards eligibility. The 22-year-old has currently played in 57 of the Spurs’ 72 games, meaning he can only miss two more games of the team’s remaining 10.
Wembanyama’s rival, OKC’s Chet Holmgren, currently has the second-best odds to win the award, according to BetMGM.
Who will win Coach of the Year?
Voting breakdown
J.B. Bickerstaff, Pistons: 40%
Mitch Johnson, Spurs: 30%
Joe Mazzulla, Celtics: 30%
This race is too close to call, but the top contenders are clear. Bickerstaff continues to impress in his second season in Detroit. After guiding a surprise 44-win team to the playoffs last year, Bickerstaff has led the Pistons to the No. 1 seed in the East, a spot they’ve occupied since early November despite a number of recent injuries.
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Johnson has steered the Spurs to an impressive 20-win turnaround in his first full season as an NBA coach, with San Antonio currently the second seed in the West and looking like a legit title favorite. Mazzulla, meanwhile, has led the Celtics to the second seed in the East despite early expectations that this would be a gap year in Boston due to Jayson Tatum’s Achilles injury and big offseason changes.
Who will win Sixth Man of the Year?
Voting breakdown
Jaime Jaquez Jr., Heat: 50%
Keldon Johnson, Spurs: 50%
Another race going down to the wire! Our panel is evenly split between Jaquez and Johnson, who are 1-2, respectively, in points off the bench this season. Jaquez has helped lift Miami’s new offensive attack, while Johnson has excelled in a new do-everything role for the Spurs.
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This will be a fun race to watch down the stretch. Interestingly enough, the two faced off on Monday, with the Spurs defeating the Heat in a 136-111 blowout. But right now, it appears to be a coin flip between the two.
Who will win Most Improved Player?
Voting breakdown
Jalen Duren, Pistons: 50%
Deni Avdija, Trail Blazers: 20%
Jalen Johnson, Hawks: 20%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 10%
As usual, the Most Improved Player race has many top candidates, but according to our panel, Duren has created some distance from his peers. The Pistons’ 22-year-old center has seen his scoring average increase from 11.8 ppg last season to 19.2 ppg this season, while taking on a larger workload for the East-leading Pistons.
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While Duren will have to hold off fellow first-time All-Stars Avdija and Johnson down the stretch, he could also see his case bolstered if he keeps the Pistons afloat in Cade Cunningham’s absence.
Who will win Clutch Player of the Year?
Voting breakdown
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder: 80%
Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves: 20%
Yes, the Clutch Award is still a thing. In its fourth year, it appears the race will come down to the league’s two most exciting shooting guards. Our panel sees Gilgeous-Alexander as the heavy favorite, especially with Edwards currently sidelined with knee inflammation.
SGA leads the league in points in crunch time — which is defined by the NBA as the final five minutes of a game with the score being within five points — despite the fact that the Thunder are so good they rarely have to play in close games. But when they do, the reigning MVP has delivered clutch shot after clutch shot.
Who will win Most Valuable Player?
Voting breakdown
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder: 90%
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs: 10%
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Yep, Gilgeous-Alexander could be collecting two more regular-season awards this season, including his second straight MVP trophy. While there are a number of worthy MVP candidates this year — including Wembanyama, Luka Dončić, Nikola Jokić, Cade Cunningham and Jaylen Brown — our panel currently sees SGA winning the race with ease, with Wembanyama as the only long shot who could pull off a late upset.
Gilgeous-Alexander has once again led the Thunder to the NBA’s best record, and is putting up career-best shooting numbers. And while we’ve learned that anything is possible with Wemby, as Yahoo Sports’ Ben Rohrbach recently wrote, “Someone has to take the MVP trophy from Gilgeous-Alexander. … Nobody has taken it from him. Not yet.”
