The first thing that Arsenal tried to do in the transfer market this summer was to buy a centre-forward. The club were heavily linked with Benjamin Sesko and bid for the player but he decided to stay with RB Leipzig. There were no other solid links with strikers for the remainder of the summer but it does tell a story about where Arsenal’s priorities lay.
First and foremost it tells you that Mikel Arteta felt that the forward line required an injection of quality. While the Gunners scored 91 goals in the Premier League last season, the figure was somewhat massaged by some big wins, some of them over clubs who were soundly relegated. Arsenal failed to score in five Premier League games last season.
A goal at Villa Park, or St. James’ Park, or another at Craven Cottage might have dragged Arsenal over the line in the title race. In Europe, Arsenal failed to score in Porto and Munich and that record has bled over into this season with blanks drawn at Atalanta and Inter Milan. They have also failed to score at Bournemouth and Newcastle.
The interest in Sesko also tells you about the profile Arteta considers to be most apposite for his forward line. Kai Havertz has supplanted Gabriel Jesus as the centre-forward and Sesko is far more towards the mould and build of Havertz than he is Gabriel Jesus. A significant injury or absence for Havertz would be a big problem for Arsenal that would require a total retooling of the forward line.
It is simply no secret that Arsenal needed to power up their forward line this summer and I think the more we see (or don’t see) Raheem Sterling, the more we learn that the deadline day signing of the Chelsea forward on loan was a reluctant signing which only took place at all due to the incredibly favourable financial details.
In fairness to Arsenal, a glance across their competitors’ behaviour shows that it was a dry market for forwards. Manchester City sold Julian Alvarez and didn’t replace him. They took Savinho from Girona a year earlier than they anticipated. Liverpool signed Federico Chiesa with the same air of reluctance and shrugging as Arsenal signed Sterling with.
Chiesa was available for a knockdown price due to his unfortunate injury record over the last three years and that has shown little sign of abating at Anfield where he has made three substitute appearances so far this season. Of the breakout attackers at the Euros, Nico Williams decided to stay at Athletic Bilbao and Lamina Yamal was already at Barcelona.
However, dry market or otherwise, Arsenal still have issues with their attack this season. Undoubtedly, they have been exacerbated by the absence of Martin Odegaard who is not only a consistently world class performer but one Arsenal don’t have an adult analogue for in the current squad.
On Odegaard’s return at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, the captain created Martinelli’s goal with a sumptuous through ball, he led the team for shot creating actions (5) and had a 90% passing accuracy despite the difficulty of the passes he was attempting (only Saliba had a higher passing accuracy on the day). Odegaard had 10 progressive passes overall (the second most in the team on Sunday produced 6).
Arsenal lost a significant chunk of their creative game without Odegaard and virtually lost all centrality in their build-up. Any attacking issues the team already had were underscored by a large creative deficit. It is probably no coincidence that Mikel Merino produced his best cameo of the season alongside Odegaard, the axis of Merino and Odegaard has a far better balance to it than Merino and Rice.
Individual form is informing some of Arsenal’s attacking issues too. Sometimes time and space can transform your opinion of the past. In the second half of last season, I think many of us assumed Gabriel Jesus’ reduction in influence was down to a mixture of the form of Havertz and Trossard and his own fitness issues.
The further we get away from that period, the more I suspect Arteta saw in training what we are consistently seeing on the pitch from Gabriel Jesus- that his level has dropped alarmingly. James McNicholas’ story from the end of last season that the club were willing to part with the player, who is one of the club’s highest earners, did not come from nowhere. Increasingly his flush looks busted and he just isn’t contributing in any meaningful way.
The reluctance to use Raheem Sterling also makes me think the late signing of the player in the transfer window was not so much a slight of negotiating hand and was more because it took Arteta some time to come to the conclusion that Sterling >> nobody. The other issue is that Leandro Trossard is not producing to the standard that he did in the spring.
Prior to this season, Trossard had scored 38 goals from an overall XG of 30.4 in the Premier League so he has always produced pretty solidly above his XG. However, last season that curve was especially generous with 12 goals scored from 7.9 expected. (He has currently scored two from 2.0XG this season). We are probably witnessing a bit of a tailing off but I think it is also fair to suggest he has been impacted by Odegaard’s absence.
The Belgian has often operated in deeper areas, for instance, in an attempt to mitigate Odegaard’s absence. But his strength lies in arriving late on in moves and finishing them (usually with a first time flourish) and without the team’s most potent creative force that was always likely to carry an impact on arguably the team’s best finisher.
The links to Saudi Arabia and his moon faced celebration at Villa Park in August also leave a heavy air around a player who, to be fair, has a naturally gloomy disposition. Martinelli’s work rate means his connection to the team is firmer but his output still hasn’t reached the levels of consistency we had all hoped.
With Odegaard back and Arsenal’s ability to deliver from the right side- as we saw on Sunday- enhanced, I am optimistic that Merino can deliver the goods on the back post. If only he had still been on the pitch at St. James’ Park when Saka delivered a wonderful stoppage time back post cross that fell to Declan Rice.
Whatever the caveats, explanations, even excuses, Arsenal need to find a way to turn threat into goals. At Inter, they pinned the Italian champions back into their own penalty area (I don’t believe that Inter were happy with that situation) but couldn’t score. At Stamford Bridge, they made all of the play in the second half but just couldn’t find the goals they needed to separate the teams.
The clue of the last two games has been that Arsenal have looked better when they have needed a goal and have pinned teams back. The structure and coaching setup they have helps them to dominate games and push opponents back but they just don’t quite have a Haaland or Salah level goal scorer in the final action.
I know my Arsenal Vision podcast colleague Clive has a theory that the 2-2 draw at Manchester City with 10 men convinced the team of its defensive solidity and, perhaps subconsciously, the team has leant on that strength a little too much. In past seasons, Arteta has found a solution or an evolution. Last year’s mid-season trip to Dubai led to a restructuring of the attack that sparked Arsenal into a long winning run.
The worry for me is, much like Marge Simpson trying to consistently transform her bargain basement Chanel dress into several new outfits, I am not sure that I see the next innovation or reimagination without the transfer market. Players like Jesus and Trossard are not the future of the forward line and will be replaced pretty soon.
But there is an interim period happening right now that should cause more immediate concern to Arteta and his staff. We probably need him to pull another tactical bunny from the hat with the materials that he has. If he can pull it off, it might be his greatest coaching feat yet.
