Manchester United are wasting no time in their bid to rid themselves of the Erik ten Hag era.
After reluctantly retaining the Dutchman’s services at the end of the 2023/24 campaign, INEOS opted to part ways with Ten Hag following one of United’s more coherent displays of the season – even if it ended in a 2-1 defeat to West Ham United last month.
The Red Devils have since appointed Ruben Amorim of Sporting CP as the former boss’ successor. The Portuguese’s coaching gift can’t be denied, but many fine figures have been swallowed up by the poisoned chalice of Old Trafford.
Better results are expected from United after Ten Hag’s overdue dismissal, but how bullish is Opta’s supercomputer in regards to a drastic improvement?
Here’s what the statisticians are projecting the final 2024/25 Premier League table to look like after Amorim’s arrival.
|
Position |
Team |
Expected points |
Chances of winning the title (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Liverpool |
85.65 |
61.08 |
|
2. |
Man City |
82.4 |
33.59 |
|
3. |
Arsenal |
74.48 |
4.87 |
|
4. |
Chelsea |
66.3 |
0.31 |
|
5. |
Newcastle |
62.31 |
0.08 |
|
6. |
Brighton |
59.33 |
0.01 |
|
7. |
Aston Villa |
58.14 |
0.03 |
|
8. |
Tottenham |
57.52 |
0.03 |
|
9. |
Man Utd |
54.13 |
0 |
|
10. |
Fulham |
49.86 |
0 |
Table correct as of 13 November 2024
It’s worth noting Opta weren’t particularly high on Ten Hag’s United entering the season. They projected the Red Devils to finish sixth in the table – an improvement on their eighth-place effort last term but hardly a wildly optimistic prediction.
United, after all, had enjoyed a busy summer acquiring talent from Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich, including players Ten Hag had worked with and successfully nurtured at Ajax.
However, the Dutch manager once again failed to get a tune out of his side as a collective. His team was defensively porous last season but forgot how to score goals in his final few months. A tally of 11 points from nine games left them 14th in the table before Ruud van Nistelrooy steadied the ship.
Opta is projecting an improvement in United’s fortunes, but they’ve got the Red Devils finishing ninth with an expected 54.13 points. That would be the club’s poorest performance in Premier League history by a comfortable margin – 58 (2021/22) is their lowest points haul in the competition.
So, despite Amorim’s arrival, the number crunchers evidently don’t expect the new coach to facilitate a distinct improvement in year one. They also give United a 0% chance of winning the league title.
Opta believe only three teams have more than a 1% chance of winning the division. Liverpool are current favourites after their unbelievable start to life under Arne Slot and are projected to win the title, boasting 61.08% compared to Manchester City’s 33.59%. Two league losses in a row have badly hampered Pep Guardiola’s side, but they so often go on streaks to claim silverware when they start a season poorly, so don’t rule them out just yet.
Arsenal had designs of lifting the trophy come early summer but their own stuttering form has seen their chances drop to just 4.87%.
At the other end of the table, Opta have already consigned Southampton to the drop. The Saints have a 94.84% chance of relegation, but Ipswich Town’s fortunes look better on 67.74% after grabbing their first win of the season at Tottenham Hotspur. However, they are still second favourites to go down, with Leicester the most likely side to join them with 54.15%.
